Think Twice Before Stepping Into Retail

Retail didn't keep pace today, because it is not part of the rosy scenario. First, there are going to be data points soon, and they are the kiss of death -- just horrible to have actual evidence of how badly these companies are doing, and that spoils the whole bull thesis.

Second, the thesis needed gasoline to go below $2.50 for premium, and we are going to have to readjust our view on that with this spike.

Third, without a stimulus that is quick, the discretionary retailers - which are really being killed today -- just don't work.

This is the only group that might be struggling, and I would only play it with Costco (COST - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Wal-Mart (WMT - commentary - Cramer's Take).

The others could be too much like Coldwater Creek (CWTR - commentary - Cramer's Take), the really bad situation that reported last night, or worse, Charming Shoppes (CHRS - commentary - Cramer's Take)!

Be careful with this group after today's bullish session. It might not fit, and it actually has some real bad news ahead of it, not to mention a crummy employment number on Friday! As with oil, I would scale out of these even as if oil goes down you should want to buy them. Just not worth the risk.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Wal-Mart.

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