I Won't Get Excited This Time

Editor's note: Jim Cramer will present his 2009 stock outlook for the first time at TheStreet.com Investment Conference on Saturday, Oct. 25. Click for details.

The real deal is upon us. The October session that we always seem to get, the one that looks like we need intraday Fed meetings and lifelines to banks and a flood of liquidity and ... oops, we've already done that!

Yep. So often we have had the real hideous looks, only at the last minute to have the darned defeat we need to start over be defeated by some optimistic yahoos who come out of the wood work and say buy, buy, buy!

I don't want it to happen this time. We have to have some recognition that Ford (F - commentary - Cramer's Take) and GM (GM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Chrysler matter and that they are all teetering, that the Boeing (BA - commentary - Cramer's Take) strike is going to soon shut down the part of American manufacturing that is not auto and that housing took a step down last month of unfathomable proportions. If you don't believe me, go read the Ryland (RYL - commentary - Cramer's Take) release: cancellations spiked up again! We will not hold those July lows that now make the HGX housing sector index run up look like a total ploy to make us feel better. When are Horton (DHI - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Pulte (PHM - commentary - Cramer's Take) going to merge anyway!

Every time we get an open, every time, the sellers fade, the buyers come in, the market rallies by 10 and we avoid the washout and the capitulation. I figure it will be no different this time because there will be plenty of people who need to support this market here. Maybe people who say, "It is way overdone." Like the recession that I want to see happen already, I want to see us get way overdone before I get too excited.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in any stocks mentioned.

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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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