It's Too Early to Think About a Bottom

What if there is a fire? I keep asking, "Did I yell 'Fire!' in a crowded theater on The Today Show when I said if you need the money for a big outlay in the next five years you should take it out of the market?" To which I respond: What if there is a fire? And if Lehman/AIG/WaMu/Wachovia (WB - commentary - Cramer's Take) don't constitute a fire, if Nat City (NCC - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Sovereign (SOV - commentary - Cramer's Take) don't constitute a fire, if the near downfall of Goldman (GS - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Morgan Stanley (MS - commentary - Cramer's Take) doesn't constitute a fire, if the collapse and bailout of the largest commercial property developer in Europe doesn't constitute a fire, if the obliteration of the commercial paper market doesn't constitute a fire, if the need to have Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take) merge with Wachovia for Citigroup's sake doesn't constitute a fire, WHAT DOES? Do we have to wait until a big bankruptcy of a non-financial occurs because there is no money around to roll over paper for a company's payroll?

Look at all of the things that have happened that we were assured by our Fed chief would not occur. The endless printing of money because we don't have any bank willing to lend to another bank -- remember JPMorgan (JPM - commentary - Cramer's Take) wouldn't lend to Goldman Sachs overnight! The possibility -- perhaps the surety -- that the Fed will be buying commercial paper. Commercial paper, for heaven's sake! How about the fact that the government is buying CDOs? Last year this government wouldn't even buy $100 billion in Fannie Mae (FNM - commentary - Cramer's Take) paper to show the flag,. Now we are buying CCC-rated CDOs and whole mortgages of the 120% loan-to-value variety?

How about the fact that I don't know a rich person who is willing to put more than $250,000 in a bank? How about the fact that at one point last week we saw major firms say they couldn't let you buy Treasuries because the market was too erratic?

Look, I want nothing more than have the market stabilize and rally here, especially because we are way oversold and the VIX is so high and all my downside indicators indicate that the shorts have over-reached. I have picked at stocks every day on the way down, but where the heck as that gotten me?

I am not a "big hat, no cattle" guy. I have tried to pick at National Oilwell Varco (NOV - commentary - Cramer's Take) for 40 points! It has been a total sucker's bet, and yet with oil at $90 it is ludicrous to believe that its business will be cut by two-thirds. How about the pressure on a company like Nucor (NUE - commentary - Cramer's Take), which raised capital in the 70s and traded at $28 yesterday? Is that something calming? Is that supposed to make me feel better?

This is not a moment where you can sit back and say not to worry. It is a moment to worry.

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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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