Stay Skeptical on the Hurricane Trade

Are you prepared for $90 oil after Ike does no damage? Can you handle $6 natural gas? That's what you have to think about when Ike produces a lot off fury but no lasting damage to the oil infrastructure.

We know that there is still no demand for oil down here, and industrial demand for natural gas seems to have diminished, too. It has been down here long enough that the major chemical companies can't budge it. We that know the most important stocks, National Oilwell Varco (NOV - commentary - Cramer's Take), which would have to help build and rebuild new wigs, and Transocean (RIG - commentary - Cramer's Take), which owns the rigs and can be used to replace damaged rigs, can't lift to save their lives, and they are the real tells of potential long-term damage. We also know that with a national natural gas pipeline system in place, you could wipe out all of the Gulf's capabilities and it wouldn't mean a thing.

So get ready. I would go into the weekend with a healthy amount of skepticism and a healthy amount of cheap September puts on the Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH - commentary - Cramer's Take) and the usuals like ConocoPhillips (COP - commentary - Cramer's Take) and ChevronTexaco (CVX - commentary - Cramer's Take) as well as Diamond Offshore (DO - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Apache (APA - commentary - Cramer's Take) -- even as I like these companies -- to take advantage of the panic down if it happens.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long National Oilwell Varco.

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