Behold: the Short Handbook

One of the bears' best arguments is that we have far to fall if the world's in recession. There is an abiding sense that when things unwind, there will be no wealth created at all by the commodity boom we have experienced and that the whole move has repealed.

So I went back to take a look at when the commodity boom really took off -- April 2005 -- just looking at the charts, mind you, to see what awaits us if that's the truth. That's a somewhat arbitrary time, but I think some of the negativity comes from the notion of a giant top that formed in 2008 with China's ascendance, and a catastrophic decline coupled with the Chinese collapse.

I think, to give the bears their due (as they certainly deserve it) that you can expect some stocks of some segments of the economy to have drastic falls from these levels, notably the mineral, oil, infrastructure and steel segments. So let's take a look at what a total wipeout of the gains -- that's right, no capital gain creation for the companies and shareholders -- would mean. (That's not a small amount of the component here given the meager dividends these companies pay.) I will use common, everyday representative companies as the examples, all considered to be in the throes of a horrible bear market.

First, there are the minerals. Let's start with Freeport (FCX - commentary - Cramer's Take). I think one of the reasons people keep selling this one is a sense that copper is abundant, and the marginal buyer -- China, with 30% of the market -- has just vanished. If you repeal the whole move, FCX goes to $36, a substantial decline from these levels, but a stunning decline from its $127 high. That's like 2000 to 2001 on the Nasdaq.

It's not just copper. Vale (RIO - commentary - Cramer's Take) (or RIO, as we know it) started at $7 and traded as high as $44. If we retreat to that level, RIO's obviously a tremendous short.

U.S. Steel's (X - commentary - Cramer's Take) representative, too. It launched its fabled move from April 2005 at $49 and rallied to $193. Another great short if the move gets repealed.

On the other hand, Alcoa (AA - commentary - Cramer's Take) -- a terribly managed company -- makes for a terrible short: It's where it started after round-tripping from $47. As a potential forecaster of the group, though, it would be deadly.

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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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