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When is it safe to buy crumbling financials? Why buy them at all? I think it's because Fannie (FNM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Freddie (FRE - commentary - Cramer's Take), if they become government-owned, in part, will allow for a huge amount of holding of property rather than foreclosing of property, and that will, when coupled with the radical decline in homebuilding, yield stable housing prices.
In 1990, still the best analog, we caught the 50% move, and then we heard endlessly that it was just a short squeeze and it would all be repealed. That's where we are now. But let's use Wachovia (WB - commentary - Cramer's Take) as an example. Can anyone let that stock go back to $9 without being in? Or how about JPMorgan Chase (JPM - commentary - Cramer's Take)? We know the earnings, near term, have gotten bad, but the dollar getting stronger -- always helpful to the financials -- and the share-take we all see mean that there is a moment for this onetime book-value stock to be ready to rock again. I see so many of these stocks that everyone wants to come down now, but I think that's because they want to get into them. There are two exceptions: Lehman (LEH - commentary - Cramer's Take) and AIG (AIG - commentary - Cramer's Take). They are still black boxes because of horrid European mortgage exposure. Washington Mutual (WM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Downey (DSL - commentary - Cramer's Take) seem, at this point, to be call options the way that MBIA (MBI - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Ambac (ABK - commentary - Cramer's Take) turned out to be. Remember that Fannie and Freddie just seem like dead-weight losses to me because of the upcoming federal dilution. The decline has gone from one to be feared to one that people look to for opportunity. Not yet; almost there. At the time of publication, Cramer was long JPMorgan Chase.
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here. TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Amazon.com under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Amazon.com purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com. Brokerage Partners
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