Lighten Up While the Market Head Fakes

At times like these, I always like to ask myself "what's the major trend?" A look at your screen with the Fortress Four (US Bancorp (USB - commentary - Cramer's Take), Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take), Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) and JP Morgan (JPM - commentary - Cramer's Take)) under pressure and profit-taking for drugs and health care, coupled with a huge rally in the coppers and the ags and the oils, could cause you think that we are reverting to the same old/same old.

I think that is wrong. The same old/same old is almost entirely an oil-related story or a China-related story and right now the first is going down and the second has temporarily left the building.

Ever since the commodity peak in July, we have had these nostalgic days where it looks like we can just go right back and buy Monsanto (MON - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Arch Coal (ACI - commentary - Cramer's Take). There's usually a second day rally that makes things look very convincing and then what happens? Mid-day, the second day they get hung. You get hung.

The stocks reverse in vicious fashion because some storm veers right or some Nigerian settlement occurs or that a crop that was supposed to be bad turns good or we get some GDP number, ours, the EU, China, that says things are bad or same store sales say things are worse.

Then you know what happens? The people who love to say the words "Demand Destruction" come out of the woods and the quant guys reload--remember they never finish and don't work with traders to find the best price. Demand Destruction is so catchy and infectious that shorts seem to slam stuff down and then come on to the airwaves and strike fear into all of those who don't think we are going back to the stone age.

That's why I believe that if you are trading, you need to lighten up right here. If you are investing and you think that demand destruction isn't that destructive and China will wake up and start spending, then do nothing. But because of the Demand Destruction Jihad, it simply isn't safe to believe today's rally in commodities is for real.

Random musings: I told Farnoosh today on video that I expect Macy's (M - commentary - Cramer's Take) to have a good quarter. Lots of restructuring now complete there...It is certainly Research in Motion (RIMM - commentary - Cramer's Take)month with lots of product launches and ample reason and room to hype them from the sell-side.

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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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