Could the Savior Come From Abroad?

You read the dirty dozen. Now let me give you some hope:

Saviors from out of the country? BNP, Deutsche Bank (DB - commentary - Cramer's Take)? Toronto-Dominion (TD - commentary - Cramer's Take)? Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS - commentary - Cramer's Take)? Maybe ING (ING - commentary - Cramer's Take)?

I am completely focused on the financials as a place that a second-half rally can come from because, well, without them, we aren't going anywhere except down.

The financials are controlled by house price depreciation, which is getting worse but could bottom this quarter because of the vintage rollover, the decline in housing starts and the possibility of a federal housing bill, although the latter is such a tough nut because of the president's amazing laissez-faire "Rome is burning" attitude.

I mention those foreign banks because it's pretty obvious we don't have any American banks except USB (USB - commentary - Cramer's Take) that can make premium bids, and we have other banks that are so untrustworthy that they are afraid to merge with each other. The cracking of JPMorgan (JPM - commentary - Cramer's Take) after what I thought was a huge win from Bear has scared pretty much everyone in this country who can take the plunge from taking it.

Tuesday, after CIT's (CIT - commentary - Cramer's Take) recap, I discussed the notion of private equity playing a role. But we are seeing, incredibly, some foreign banks that didn't go subprime, and those really are the hope because the groupthink somehow eluded them.

We have to understand that until we get clarity on housing, we are going to be gripped by crisis no matter what, and in the vacuum of crisis caused by inflation in oil and food and the depreciation of housing, the only thing that's going to work is natural gas -- a really small universe.

The headwinds to banking are horrible. The destruction of the monolines will reveal another round of necessary reserves. The employment figures aren't going to help. The yield curve's not hospitable.

Takeovers are the only solution. Without those, after the oversold rally, we'll go right back down.

Period. Otherwise, more of yesterday's action, with a dash of commodity crash thrown in!

Random musings: Most oversold, fewest bulls -- YAWN! No one I talk to believes this market can't rally. I guess when no one I talk to thinks it can, we will find the real rally, or any rally for that matter.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

ALL JIM CRAMER BLOG ENTRIES | POST A COMMENT | READ COMMENTS  

---

Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Amazon.com under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Amazon.com purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.