When the Bottom Comes, You'll Know It

Why is there so much chatter about Wachovia (WB - commentary - Cramer's Take) getting a bid? Why do people think that its deposit base is worth the heartache of dealing with its mortgage portfolio?

We have all heard the chatter about a potential bid for Wachovia, and it sure would be sweet, because the stock has been one of the worst of the group. It doesn't have a CEO, so that fits the scenario of a company that could be for sale. The franchise was always a solid one until now. And I will admit that the secret to the bulls' case for a better second half is a bid for Wachovia, a premium bid that takes everyone's breath away and causes a short panic.

My problem is that if you wanted to buy Wachovia, why not wait? What's the hurry? Is it that you might miss a chance at a bottom? Is there someone else out there who might want it? Do you perceive a bidding war, for instance, between JPMorgan (JPM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take) for WB? How about USB (USB - commentary - Cramer's Take)?

You see, the issue here is that no matter how low the common stock goes, without some guarantees from someone or an ability to be able to offload those bad mortgages to a Lone Star like CIT (CIT - commentary - Cramer's Take) did, I just don't see any way around the possibility that you wreck your own company by taking them on.

When the book is written on this era, I believe we will look back and say, "Oh my, it was such an obvious bottom, everyone was short, there was no hope and then __________ happened." That blank will be the unknown that I believe we are not yet ready for and have not seen enough punishment to have the luxury of getting. I mean that. There are still too many people talking about value in the financials. I am confident about what it will not be: "JPM bought WB at a huge premium." Just like it wasn't when Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) bought Countrywide (CFC - commentary - Cramer's Take). And it wasn't when JPM bought Bear.

What it will be is a discrete event or a big investment from left field that actually makes sense and holds. No outside investor has yet been able to be a profitable bottom-caller. Anyone who is buying WB now must be hoping that there is something out there.

In 1990 when Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take) got the big investor from Saudi Arabia, you knew it -- you knew that things were going to be fine. But you had so much more going for you than you have now: a compliant Fed, an economy that was about to get better, a government that was not only NOT laissez-faire but was extremely aggressive in attempting to fix the problems.

We are so far from that now it is scary. So I say wait.

You won't miss much. And you could lose tons if you act now.

Random musings: Doug Kass is a great short-seller, so when he calls a bottom for the year, you'd better listen. He will be right if Wachovia gets a bid this weekend!

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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