Did the FCC just green-light the deal between XM (XMSR - commentary - Cramer's Take)and Sirius (SIRI - commentary - Cramer's Take) without anyone knowing it? That's what it feels like after reading the Merrill Lynch upgrade of Sirius Satellite.
There's been a lot of commentary about how the guidance of the joint company's prospects really looks. Some said it was disappointing, others cheered it.
I have no idea, because I have no faith in the FCC. If you remember, Chairman Martin said the deal could be addressed in June. The calendar is looking like July today.
That's the killer here.
Remember that the Sirius-XM story is all about autos. When you see a 12 million car build, down from 16 million, that's more impacting than anything other than the FCC. And that's devastating for these two companies.
This deal with the FCC had to be done in time for the coming model year. I remain convinced that this lack of a deal is anything other than an attempt to let nature take its course and wipe out one of these players.
It is playing out perfectly for terrestrial radio, which needs the people to buy the Clear Channel (CCU - commentary - Cramer's Take) debt.
Conspiracy?
No, simply the hatred of this combination by a dying industry that is waging a vicious rear-guard action against the merger. So far, they are succeeding to derail it, well beyond their wildest dreams.
P.S. Will you be there when Cramer makes his next move?
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