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Do you think this week will finally end the oil inventory nonsense? Do you think this week could be the breakout where oil doesn't trade on the slight build or the "heavier than expected" chatter?
Yesterday was a horrible market, but midday, when the market was really beginning to roll over, the whole complex turned. This was quite an achievement given the overwhelming collapse of the futures and the propensity of the bears to push things down.
Today with the futures breaching $140 -- remember, I think they're on the way to $150 -- we can see the error of relying on these numbers, which I have said for years now are meaningless. Witness how many times the inventories have been more full than expected and yet oil has doubled. I want to go back to the cheaper-than-oil stocks, though. Natural gas. Oil has to go down $65 to get to where natural gas is right now. Meaning that historically oil trades at six times the price of natural gas. So natural gas -- forget the season, which is supposed to be bad for nat gas -- needs to come higher. Much higher. We have lots of natural gas, more than can be stored; those inventories are particularly meaningless and can vanish with a couple of days of warm weather. We have abundant finds all over the country that were worthless pre-horizontal drilling, so the numbers for these companies are way too low. So are most of the pipeline companies -- did you see Williams' (WMB - commentary - Cramer's Take) numbers yesterday?
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