Evaluating Five Hiding Places

Let's look at where people are hiding -- oil and gas, tech, ag, materials, defense and infrastructure.

Are these good hiding places? Depends on the domestic vs. the international exposure, and it depends on the end markets.

I can make a very strong case that agriculture is a legit place to hide because of the twin drives for renewable fuels -- something that makes a ton of political sense at $104, even as it doesn't economically -- and the food shortage that is worldwide.

Oil and gas? Sure. $104. That's all you need to know, unless you are drilling domestically a la Union Drilling (UDRL - commentary - Cramer's Take), a domestic driller where everything went wrong at once, particularly in Appalachian drilling, which should have been good at $104. I see people buying Nabors (NBR - commentary - Cramer's Take), maybe they got it right, but I would rather own Transocean (RIG - commentary - Cramer's Take) at $140 (Exxon's (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take) new budget) than Nabors, even as Exxon says it is going back to some old wells to get more oil. That could spur Nabors but I think that Union would scare people off that name eventually. Getting that extra oil out is a Core Labs (CLB - commentary - Cramer's Take) play, and that rally's making sense.

Materials: that's a worldwide play. Mineral plays are going higher because of worldwide demand not U.S. declining demand. Makes sense although not as much sense as oil and gas.

Infra? Any of the international building companies are doing so well that it is hard not to buy them. They have been speaking in New York and business isn't showing any sign of cessation. If anything it is getting better. Great note about the strong business at Foster Wheeler (FWLT - commentary - Cramer's Take) out of Citigroup explains a lot of the gains.

Defense? McCain. He looks stronger as the two Democrats slug it out. Statesman who favors defense and made a bet on Iraq that short-term is liked by many people in the United States. I am buying into this theory big-time.

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