Builders Have Likely Seen Their Lows

Homebuilders are at the fulcrum of the great debate right now. Despite myriad positives from Washington -- and I think we will see more after this unemployment report -- we've yet to see anyone really bullish about housing or the housing stocks. I understand, because houses fell on average 6% last year, and while most regions have now rolled back the last five years of pricing, there are real problems getting a downpayment and a mortgage.

It is entirely possible that the stocks have gotten ahead of themselves, because at the bottom, they represented about $5 billion in market, which was too little for the shorts to handle.

I think the group plateaus here, maybe flops and chops as Bill Fleckenstein says, and then churns higher.

Still, you have to recognize that the moves are incredible. Ara Hovnanian now looks like a genius with his big buy at the five level. Icahn's WCI (WCI - commentary - Cramer's Take) stake has now doubled in about a week. The value guys who bought and bought Toll (TOL - commentary - Cramer's Take) and KB (KBH - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Pulte (PHM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Ryland (RYL - commentary - Cramer's Take) are suddenly looking at big gains since the beginning of the year.

I say, don't get greedy here if you bought for a trade. But these stocks will not see those lows again this cycle.

Random musings: How bad is Bristol Myers (BMY - commentary - Cramer's Take) that it did this subprime stuff when it could have earned high rates just in cash. ... After fine-tooth combing the Procter (PG - commentary - Cramer's Take) quarter, I liked what I saw. But it is not as good as Altria (MO - commentary - Cramer's Take).

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Altria.

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