How Do People Miss the Blueprints?

Total do-over. Last time we got that rate cut, you got an instant tell: Home Depot (HD - commentary - Cramer's Take) was higher as the rest of the market was in free fall. That was the tell of the shift out of the oils and techs into the early-cycle players: homebuilders, as represented by Toll (TOL - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Ryland (RYL - commentary - Cramer's Take); banks, as represented by Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take), Washington Mutual (WM - commentary - Cramer's Take), Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Wachovia Bank (WB - commentary - Cramer's Take); and retailers, as represented by Home Depot, Lowe's (LOW - commentary - Cramer's Take), Target (TGT - commentary - Cramer's Take), Wal-Mart (WMT - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Nordstrom (JWN - commentary - Cramer's Take). Bear points out that JWN sells at only 12 times earnings, and that's just nuts.

And Annaly (NLY - commentary - Cramer's Take) was totally ripping.

Everyone focused on the futures and how they were bringing down tons of stocks, or on the commodity collapse -- then as now oil, ag and infra were down -- but people were oblivious to the underneath move, the one that was happening, the big cycle shift.

Here we go again. Amazing: the same plan, and people are missing it again.

Watch it happen, just as people say the Fed doesn't matter. It is mattering so huge that the whole cycle is changing, the whole cycle. You cannot afford to miss it.

Random musings: I don't want to abandon oil or ag, but I respect that they can have down days. I like to buy them on down days, but when I look at a Conoco (COP - commentary - Cramer's Take) that was at $69 last week, down 54 cents isn't a breakdown worthy of buying. ... Celgene (CELG - commentary - Cramer's Take) seems headed back to $60, where I think we may have to re-evaluate. I like Genentech (DNA - commentary - Cramer's Take) more here on a potential switch in Avastin votes on cancer.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long ConocoPhillips and Annaly.

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