Optimal Open Is Flat to Down

You have to like a down opening and a European turndown. Remember: An up day today -- at least at the opening -- is toxic. A flat to down opening that stays down until the afternoon, when we get a snapback rally and something to build on, is optimal.

I keep thinking about the last 45 minutes of Friday and how they turned out to be phony, just like in February. The system obviously cannot handle the volume, and once again the problem was allegedly with Dow Jones. Given that we can't trust the prices now -- which is just awful -- anything that allows us to be in a position to break down at the close will be deadly.

The only way to avoid that, frankly, is to break down early enough that buyers have the afternoon to pick. If you recall, on Friday the buyers didn't even know where the sellers were. That lent to the chaos that caused the weekend of soul-searching and worry. If we have that again, it will be difficult to have the snapback.

The keys today are the leaders from before the monster selloff. I would watch Exxon (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take), Schlumberger (SLB - commentary - Cramer's Take), Boeing (BA - commentary - Cramer's Take), Deere (DE - commentary - Cramer's Take) and IBM (IBM - commentary - Cramer's Take). I also would think that Medco Health (MHS - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Merck (MRK - commentary - Cramer's Take), two strong ones in health care, could be important tells.

Remember, flat to down is good. Up is bad -- because up will be faded, at least at first.

Random musings: I hate to be positive, but Ingersoll-Rand (IR - commentary - Cramer's Take) was not supposed to get so much money for Bobcat. ... Also, the Virgin Media (VMED - commentary - Cramer's Take) sale was supposed to be a bust. Now it has two bidders, including the well-capitalized John Malone. Again, don't want to be positive at all, but sometimes the facts just don't fit into the story.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in any stocks mentioned.

ALL JIM CRAMER BLOG ENTRIES | POST A COMMENT | READ COMMENTS  

---

Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order his book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column by clicking here.

TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Traders' Library under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Traders' Library purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.