Yahoo!'s Big Call Buyers Will Whimper

Who in heck is buying all of those Yahoo! (YHOO - commentary - Cramer's Take) November 27.5 calls? That's amazing! Who could be so sure that this stock is going higher like that?

I was watching the call-buying all day Thursday and marveling that people believe something imminent is going to happen here. I'm not saying that something shouldn't happen here. I'm not saying that if I were Comcast (CMCSA - commentary - Cramer's Take) or AT&T (T - commentary - Cramer's Take) or Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take) I wouldn't consider buying it.

But I know that this stock would be lower without the takeover talk. The decline to $22-$23 came from execution risk. The rally back to $24-$25 came with the notion that Panama, Yahoo!'s new search engine, will ship next quarter. But the run to $26 and change displays belief in an imminent deal, which I simply believe is unlikely. Nothing happens imminently with this management team.

I said that when Yahoo! was at $22, at last a company like a Microsoft with no online strategy at all could pay $32 and get the company. That doesn't work at $26.

But the call buyers didn't seem to care. Sometimes I wonder whether they didn't care because they thought that the Microsoft meeting after the close was about a purchase of Yahoo!, instead of something far more meaningless, a deal with Novell (NOVL - commentary - Cramer's Take) of all things. (Felt like the 1990s when you heard this, didn't it?)

My prediction: Those Yahoo! calls will go out worthless.

Random musings: Qualcomm's (QCOM - commentary - Cramer's Take) putting on a good face about inventories. I no longer trust these guys. I think they have angered too many shareholders and customers. ... If you love following stocks as much as I do and want to help me help people make money, you're someone I need. I'm looking for an experienced research assistant based in the New York metro area to help me out. (CFAs welcome.) Please send your resumé and cover letter to [e-mail].

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Yahoo!.

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