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RealMoney.com: Jim Cramer Blog
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Don't Buy Into Wrong Ideas About Oil

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist

2/3/2006 8:44 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Jim Cramer
 
 Oil
  • People who believe oil is going down to $50 are dreaming.
  • Keep buying oil stocks until you instead hear people talking about how important it is to buy.
  • Buying in up here feels hard, but should prove right.

You get a couple unseasonably warm days, you get a couple days when oil goes down, and suddenly those "going to $50" people surface all over again. In fact, now people are calling Exxon's (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take) quarter the peak, the high-water mark, and saying it is all downhill from there.



To which I have to say, we are dreaming. The whole problem with this market Thursday was "earth risks," not earnings risks. The countries with oil seem to be banding together to make the rest of the countries pay for the crises in their own lands. Increasingly, leaders of the oil-producing countries are radical anti-capitalists and supremacists who are complicit with still-higher oil prices. Worse, we have done precious little in this country to curb our oil use and whatever is spare out there seems to be getting grabbed by the Chinese.

And in this situation we have people selling the oil stocks? It's almost laughable.

In fact, I believe that until we get into a situation where people talk about doing a 'mon back, rather than saying, "Here we go down to $50," you have to keep buying.

It's tough. I know. I have a basis in the $70s for my remaining shares of Occidental (OXY - commentary - Cramer's Take), which I hold for Action Alerts PLUS. It seems almost ridiculous to buy more up here. To come in now on Schlumberger (SLB - commentary - Cramer's Take) when the world thinks it acts "toppy" is understandably difficult, but I think you have to buy some.

The other day, a bunch of guys in Camp Victory in Iraq -- hey we've got readers everywhere -- asked me it they made a mistake paying up for Halliburton (HAL - commentary - Cramer's Take) the other day. I just said, "The only mistake you may have made is that you can't buy all at once. These stocks are way too volatile for that." But to give up on them here just seems plain wrong.

We will know when it is right: when the world is awash with crude or when we have alternatives that are making thousands of megawatts instead of hundreds, like Ormat (ORA - commentary - Cramer's Take).

Until then, the group remains in a special place for all portfolios.

Random musings: I'm doing a special broadcast of my radio show from Commerce Bancorp's (CBH - commentary - Cramer's Take) new Wall Street branch this a.m. Come on by!






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At the time of publication, Cramer was long Occidental Petroleum, Halliburton and Commerce Bancorp.

Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Listen to Cramer's RealMoney Radio show on your computer; just click here. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" at 6 p.m. ET weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column by clicking here.

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