Don't Try to Dodge the Dip in Tech

How nimble can you be? Can you get out of some Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take) before a so-so quarterly update and then get back in at $25? Can you ring the register in National Semi (NSM - commentary - Cramer's Take), and then jump right back on the horse before the company guides up? Is it worth it to take the profits in Yahoo! (YHOO - commentary - Cramer's Take) to avoid the $41 to $38 decline, because you are so certain you can get back in at $37?

When I hear this line of thinking, I ask, "Is anyone that good? Can anyone play with that kind of precision?" I play now for Action Alerts PLUS with such stringent restrictions that trading the way I've described above is a total impossibility, but even when I was unfettered, I didn't know if I could do it well enough.

Right now, as I look at the landscape, I believe that tech, which performed magnificently in November with the SOX leading all groups, is due for a pullback. But you have to think of tech being more like the Indianapolis Colts than the Philadelphia Eagles. The Colts could suffer a loss and still take it all. If the Eagles suffer a loss, they are gone. They are probably gone anyway.

So would you sell the Colts for a week? I wouldn't bother. I would just ride 'em. That's how I feel about these semis. Tuesday, during my Stop Trading segment of CNBC's "Closing Bell," Maria Bartiromo asked me what happened to the year-end rally. I was aghast, because I believe that a breather doesn't spell the end to anything. I wanted to talk Colts, but figured that would be a nonstarter. I believe that we could suffer through some reversals here -- it was saying something that it happened on Tuesday, which is usually a big mark-up day 'cause the feds get fooled if you don't do it the last day of the month -- but I just don't think it is worth leaving the table for. Too many people are looking for too big a pullback to make that happen.

So, don't be greedy. If you want to take some Yahoo! off after a 10-point run, so be it. If you believe that Intel can slip back to $25 on a so-so midquarter outlook next week, so be it. To me, though, the fear is that I won't get back on. That's the fear that's most worrisome to me, not dodging the dip.

Random musings: Can you believe all of this mergers and acquisitions activity in Europe? Remember, the fees go to U.S. brokers and banks. Keep an eye on Goldman Sachs (GS - commentary - Cramer's Take); that's been a nice pullback worth buying, given all of this activity. ... I am still trying to figure out how Calpine (CPN - commentary - Cramer's Take) talked Kenneth Derr, a totally respectable guy, into taking the temporary post at its world-class embarrassment of a company. ... I hate to wade in on this Bausch & Lomb (BOL - commentary - Cramer's Take) 10-Q late filing, but it seems to be totally contained to Brazil, so that might be an opportunity, given how hot the eye market is. ... Hearing that Novo Nordisk's (NVO - commentary - Cramer's Take) Amylin (AMLN - commentary - Cramer's Take) buster might have traction.

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At the time of publication, Cramer was long Intel and Yahoo!.

James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for ActionAlertsPLUS. Listen to Cramer's RealMoney Radio show on your computer; just click here. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" at 6 p.m. ET weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column by clicking here.