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RealMoney.com: James J. Cramer
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Food Fright

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist

9/27/2005 2:17 PM EDT
 
 Food Stocks
  • The positive movement in the food stocks is making Cramer nervous.
  • Food stocks are like parasites; they suck the blood out of all other sectors.
  • Taking heed of the bigger sea change here, you have to believe there's something big afoot in the economy.



The action looks so scattered, but there's something behind the action, beneath it, lurking that makes me nervous, and I am not talking about Invasion, Lost, Surface or Ghost Whisperers. I am talking the most chilling tell of all: The Food Stocks.

They are all up.

At first I thought that perhaps the canned goods trade post-Hurricane Katrina, as well-documented by James Altucher, might be behind the strength. But the move is too all-encompassing besides Campbell's (CPB - commentary - Cramer's Take) and General Mills' (GIS - commentary - Cramer's Take) Progresso.

Heinz (HNZ - commentary - Cramer's Take), Kraft (KFT - commentary - Cramer's Take), Hormel (HRL - commentary - Cramer's Take), Kellogg (K - commentary - Cramer's Take), they all are ramping. Pepsi (PEP - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Coke (KO - commentary - Cramer's Take) are both up, too.

That's not a good thing.

The food stocks are like parasites, they suck the blood out of all other sectors, including tech and industrials. They live off the rest of the market -- an awful combination of cannibals and vampires.

We have not seen this group act in tandem like this since the spring of 2000, when the Fed was also too aggressive. That's when you saw these giant moves in the cereal and beverage companies. Of course, it was easy to be fooled at the time because part of it was takeover: Bestfoods got a bid from Unilever (UL - commentary - Cramer's Take), making people feel that there might have been something else.

That's not the case this time. This time there's no possible misdirection play. We have been zero-sum in this group for a long time: Kellogg goes up so General Mills goes down; Pepsi goes up so Coke goes down. That's why it is such a sit-up-and-take-notice moment.

I bought some General Mills yesterday for my charitable trust, ActionAlertsPLUS. The company reported a nice upside surprise, went up a buck and change and then started giving back what it had made.

Not today. It's on the way up.

I don't want to overthink this move. The best way to play it would be with Altria (MO - commentary - Cramer's Take), which is still facing a big break in its tobacco litigation that will unlock the food group within.

The next-best way might be General Mills because the good quarter just got reported.

You have to like the comeback that Unilever's been making too with a 4% yield.

Mostly, though, you should take heed of the bigger sea change here. The steels, the chemicals, the aluminums can't get out of their way. The machinery call, as much as I didn't like it yesterday, has legs again. And to see the Hormel and the Heinz and the ConAgra (CAG - commentary - Cramer's Take) move, you have to believe there's something big afoot. Something big and bad. In the economy.






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At the time of publication, Cramer was long General Mills and Altria.

James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for ActionAlertsPLUS. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column by clicking here. Listen to Cramer's RealMoney Radio show on your computer; just click here. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" at 6 p.m. ET weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." Cramer appreciates your feedback and invites you to send him an email by clicking here.

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