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RealMoney.com: James J. Cramer
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Adtran's Health Jolts Telecom Tech

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist

7/19/2005 8:59 AM EDT
 
 Telecom
  • Adtran's growth says the regional Bells have a pulse.
  • One telco exec says that at last there has been enough consolidation that gross margins can rise.
  • It's hard to tell whether this will rub off on the Ciscos, Lucents and Nortels, but this looks like a good sign.



Adtran (ADTN - commentary - Cramer's Take) steals the thunder. It's been a long time since we have had an upside surprise of this magnitude in the telecom business. Not easy to say what's behind it, as Adtran deals with everyone from Sprint (FON - commentary - Cramer's Take) to SBC (SBC - commentary - Cramer's Take). But the fact that it could deliver such strong top- and bottom-line growth tells you that the regional Bells have a pulse.

I wonder whether what we are seeing is a recognition that we have had enough consolidation and that it might be worth spending again for these companies.

Last night, I interviewed Tim Donahue, the most bankable man in the telco industry and soon-to-be executive chairman of the Sprint-Nextel (NXTL - commentary - Cramer's Take) combo. He said point-blank that there is at last enough consolidation for gross margins to rise. And that's before we see what happens to T-Zeta Jones.

It's been the inability to get a payback on equipment that has stymied sales. Maybe this Adtran number indicates a health we haven't seen in some time.

Will it rub off on the others, on the Ciscos (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Lucents (LU - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Nortels (NT - commentary - Cramer's Take)? Hard to tell, at least from what we have seen from Lucent, which seemed very in-line (more positive than negative, though).

There was a time when this whole industry was like Adtran and we would sit there and pick and make money.

Maybe this is a sign that something akin to that -- we will never see that level again -- could be on the horizon.

The tech rally continues.






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At the time of publication, Cramer was long Lucent.

James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column by clicking here. Listen to Cramer's RealMoney Radio show on your computer; just click here. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" at 6 p.m. ET weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict."

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