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RealMoney.com: James J. Cramer
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Market Is Clear About What Works

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist

4/15/2005 2:46 PM EDT
 
 Market Analysis
  • We've had opening day of the season for drug stocks and now banks, too.
  • But players like Sun Micro and IBM -- techs -- have hung on too long, same for the cyclicals.
  • Cycles triumph over all; you don't need the Fed to tell you which way the wind is blowing.



You have to respect this market. Rarely is it so clear. Rarely does the market have such a black-and-white dichotomy between what is working and what isn't.

We know it's the season, for example, for drugs. We know that the season for cyclicals has ended, that the epoch for tech's come and gone.

But how about the banks? I think we saw opening day today on that beautiful season, with Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take) and that financially nimble General Electric (GE - commentary - Cramer's Take) hitting back-to-back home runs first time at the plate. You don't need the smell of neat's-foot oil, let alone roasted peanuts and Cracker Jack, to know that the pennant race already has begun.

Meanwhile, just when the drugs needed more than economic weakness to take their cuts at the plate, along comes the Zyprexa ruling for Lilly (LLY - commentary - Cramer's Take) and then some splendid news for Genentech's (DNA - commentary - Cramer's Take) Avastin on cancer survival rates, giving us a plethora of upgrades. The move's been so swift the analysts barely have gotten on board, but you can bet they will be ready by the time Monday's game rolls around.

Sweet.

And how about those players who have hung on for too long, the ones who don't know the season ended years ago? I am talking about Sun Micro (SUNW - commentary - Cramer's Take) and IBM (IBM - commentary - Cramer's Take), two companies whose very best years now are clearly behind them. Why, when I think Sun Micro, do I see Willie Mays trying -- and failing -- to hit second base from center? As for IBM, well, it's pretty obvious what happened at the end of 2004: The enterprise hardware and corporate spending cycle peaked. Now it's all over but for the happy shouting of the shorts.

Now, while it's clear that the financials, as represented by the BKX, and the drugs, as represented by the DRG, are making their moves, we have some obfuscation. When Cash America (CSH - commentary - Cramer's Take) -- yeah, the largest publicly traded pawnbroker -- blows up, you would think that things are getting better in the economy, yet we know they aren't. Far better to focus on labelmaker Avery Dennison (AVY - commentary - Cramer's Take), a company that rarely misses, because when it lowers guidance as it did Thursday, it reminds us of how weak the economy has become; consistent businesses like business forms and labels have grown inconsistent.

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General Electric owns CNBC, for which Cramer is a featured commentator.

James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS by clicking here. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to jjcletters@thestreet.com. Listen to Cramer's RealMoney Radio show on your computer; just click here. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" at 6 p.m. ET weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict."

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