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RealMoney.com: James J. Cramer
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How the Dow Stocks Will Do This Year, Part 2

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist

1/2/2003 11:18 AM EST
 



Editor's note: This is Part 2 of Cramer's review of the prospects for the stocks that make up the Dow 30. Click here to read Part 1, published earlier today, and check back this afternoon for Part 3.

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ExxonMobil (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take): With a 2.6% yield and the best management in the industry, ExxonMobil is my favorite oil. I own it for my Action Alerts PLUS account, bought it right here and I am convinced that if anyone can figure out how to profit from $30 oil, it would be ExxonMobil. I know watching this stock is like watching paint dry, but this could be Exxon's year and I think patience will be rewarded. I would love it if it went go down so I could buy more!

General Electric (GE - commentary - Cramer's Take): It has a 3% yield and is three points from its low, but is in a lot of tough industries. That said, I think this stock bottomed in 2002 and will mark time until there is a genuine pick-up in the economy. Lots of people hate GE here and I think that's very wrong; the time to hate it was when it got a premium synergistic multiple that turned out to be undeserved when the economy turned down. I still think this is a remarkable company given that its businesses were truly shaken by the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks but it kept delivering good earnings. The market remains skeptical of companies that routinely meet earnings projections, fearing that everything might be the next Tyco (TYC - commentary - Cramer's Take). I think that skepticism will take more than just a year to bust. That means that this stock has some upside, certainly more upside than downside, but I don't want to commit to it.

General Motors (GM - commentary - Cramer's Take): Could this be the year that Ford (F - commentary - Cramer's Take) falters badly and GM takes off? No, because in reality Ford faltered terribly in 2002 and it pulled GM down with it. These companies, with their giant pension fund obligations and strong unionized work force, have become dinosaurs in the market. I like the yield here, but everything else is just, well, too negative for me. I do believe that if we get a change in the taxation of dividends, this stock will jump. I would own it until that happened, and then I would sell.

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James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. At the time of publication, Cramer was long ExxonMobil, Honeywell, Johnson & Johnson and J.P. Morgan. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to jjcletters@thestreet.com. Click here to buy Cramer's latest book, "You Got Screwed!" Click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict."
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