Analysts Can't Mold Semi Fundamentals

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It's simply rotten when the fundamentals get in the way of a good story. Of course, the fundamentals are in technology, and the good story is the "never-ending bottom" in semiconductors and semiconductor equipment that the analysts keep calling.

Taiwan Semi (TSM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Philips Electronics (PHG - commentary - Cramer's Take), both giant semiconductor producers, just won't comply with analysts' rosy forecasts. They keep looking at their darned order books, keep looking at their P&Ls and keep realizing that things are getting worse, not better.

In the meantime, the analysts maintain their projections of a bottom and keep acting as if those silly folks in the industry had better stop being so pessimistic if they want their stocks to go up.

This morning, Shekhar Pramanick, the Prudential semiconductor analyst, became the latest to ignore those negative sirens coming from the industry. He reiterated his positive view and said that Intel's (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take) recent ramping for new fabs could benefit the whole shootin' match of Applied Materials (AMAT - commentary - Cramer's Take), Novellus (NVLS - commentary - Cramer's Take), KLA-Tencor (KLAC - commentary - Cramer's Take), ASM Lithography (ASML - commentary - Cramer's Take), etc. As Pramanick does no investment banking business, it's hard to fathom why this man went out with this report; maybe he's hopelessly optimistic.

Oh well.

When in doubt, I like to go with the fundamentals. Those silly fundamentals -- they always seem to win out in the end.

Random musings: Lots of great stuff on the site today. Check out great pieces like the one about Nasdaq stocks that should offer dividends by my colleague David Peltier; a column that's another in a long line of compelling pieces by Jeff Cooper, who has been incredibly thought-provoking about the downturn; and Helene Meisler puts the fear back into the market after a 300-point September run. I commend them all to you. If you missed my radio show last night, click here to listen to what I had to say about Sept. 11, the war effort and the passing of Bill Meehan, the late equity strategist/poet laureate of Cantor Fitzgerald.

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James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS by clicking here. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to [e-mail]. Click here to get Cramer's book, "Confessions of a Street Addict."