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RealMoney.com: James J. Cramer
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Checking In With the 'For the Moment' Portfolio

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist

3/25/2002 10:03 AM EST
 

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Last summer -- seems like years ago -- I asked you all to give me your best ideas for a "For the Moment" portfolio. We then had a highly successful lecture and tape about the stocks, and lots of people were thrilled that we came up with so many good names.



It's been eight months now and it's time to have a look back at those stocks, to measure how we did vs. the averages and see if there are any updates to be made.

First of all, the portfolio performed spectacularly vs. the averages. It has increased 10.2% vs. a 2.4% decline in the S&P 500.

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A lot of that outperformance came from the skewing toward dividends that the portfolio had. Dividends themselves accounted for 3.2% of that performance, or about a third of the total win.

What's most interesting about the portfolio is something that I find to be the case with many portfolios: If it weren't for one stock in particular, Vesta (VTA - commentary - Cramer's Take), an insurance company, the returns would have been extraordinary. C'est la vie; you can't asterisk performance. Let's use this column to go over what went on and where this portfolio might be going.

Atlantic Coast Airlines (ACAI - commentary - Cramer's Take): Given the Sept. 11 cataclysm's impact on this group, it is a wonder that this airline was only down 8.2%. I think that this regional airline business bounced back faster than the main carriers. I continue to think that this is an excellent stock.

American Capital Strategies (ACAS - commentary - Cramer's Take): This stock rallied 11.6%. I think it was helped immeasurably by its 7.65% dividend. Seems like all systems go.

Allied Capital (ALD - commentary - Cramer's Take): While this stock is up 18% since the unfurling of the portfolio, I think that it has had about all the move it is going to get. It reported its worst net investment performance ever in the fourth quarter. I don't want to buy it anymore.

Alfa (ALFA - commentary - Cramer's Take): This stock gained 16% in an overall strong period for insurance. Seems like it is still on target for 20% growth.

BSB Bancorp (BSBN - commentary - Cramer's Take): The savings and loans benefited from that low fed funds rate and this stock in particular rallied 31%. Too late to buy it now. Take profits.

First Industrial Realty (FR - commentary - Cramer's Take): I defer to Chris Edmonds on REITs. I think this stock, up 8.6% is showing signs of flagging but still has a big 7.9% yield.

Fulton Financials (FULT - commentary - Cramer's Take): Still a good company, but too late in the cycle for savings and loans. Up 11.6% since the portfolio's creation.

Hawaiian Electric (HE - commentary - Cramer's Take): Up 9.5%. I still think this stock has a ways to go. I would stick with it.

Helen of Troy (HELE - commentary - Cramer's Take): This company keeps raising numbers. It was hurt a little by Kmart (KM - commentary - Cramer's Take) but not enough to derail earnings per share. It has only rallied 4% and I think has more upside.

International Aluminum (IAL - commentary - Cramer's Take). This stock was down 9.6%, a decline I attribute to labor problems at the company. A labor strike started in September. I don't like it when labor is fractious; avoid the stock.

Martha Stewart (MSO - commentary - Cramer's Take): Up 3.8% despite the Kmart bankruptcy. I think this stock is poised for a very big move as advertising comes back. One of my personal favorites in this portfolio.

Northern Border Partners (NBP - commentary - Cramer's Take): Only up 4.2% because it had some dealings with Enron, I believe. Dividend is still 8.2% but I wouldn't buy it now.

Pep Boys (PBY - commentary - Cramer's Take): Up 19.7% and I think still goes higher. Remember how AutoZone (AZO - commentary - Cramer's Take) had a big move last year? PBY could be ready for one of those. This company no longer tolerates underperforming stores.

Polaris (PII - commentary - Cramer's Take): Discretionary spending came back big, benefiting this maker of snowmobiles. A remarkable 32% increase despite a mild winter. Insiders are still buying stock. Stick with it and buy on any pullbacks.

Suburban Propane Partners (SPH - commentary - Cramer's Take): Sold a business this year so its book value has been marked down. The stock declined 3.6%. I don't care for this gas group post-Enron. I know that could be irrational, but who wants to take any chances?

Tasty Baking (TBC - commentary - Cramer's Take): Company has a shortfall as it struggles with competition from Hostess and Entenmann's. Down 3.7%. I still like it and think it can be an OK performer.

TriCo Bancshares (TCBK - commentary - Cramer's Take): It has only rallied 3.5% but I think that the time to buy savings & loans for the cycle is now behind us.

United Auto Group (UAG - commentary - Cramer's Take): This company continues to surprise to the upside. It keeps guiding the Street higher and is doing extremely well, up 18.2%, since the portfolio began. Great management.

Universal Health Realty Trust (UHT - commentary - Cramer's Take): Up 12.8%; I thought this was an excellent place to park cash in order to juice returns, but with the reacceleration of the economy, you don't need to park cash any more.

Vesta: Worst performer. Down 45.4%. Had a surprise quarterly loss. I hate surprises. I wouldn't own it.

Overall, a pretty good showing. The problem is that with the Federal Reserve about to start raising interest rates, you won't get good outperformance anymore from high-yielding stocks with little growth. Still, I bet this portfolio outpoints the Nasdaq over the next six months!







James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to jjcletters@thestreet.com.
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