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RealMoney.com: Investing
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Three Stocks That Can Leapfrog the Indices

By Arne Alsin
RealMoney.com Contributor

9/23/2009 2:05 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Arne Alsin
 
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The indices are not where the action is in this cycle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average? It's just not important. Boring, even. The S&P 500? Snoresville, baby. Other than figuring out how many times you lap the S&P, you can ignore the index.

The excitement in this cycle resides deep in the trenches of the market, where, on a stock-by-stock basis, you can find bargains so compelling it'll make you dizzy. As I said late last year, "The mega-bear's ravaging saw cut a jagged, uneven path across stock prices. As a result, the bounce in the next cycle will produce disparate gains in stocks -- gains that range from modest to mind-boggling."

If you want mind-boggling gains, you're not going to find it in big companies. Big-cap stalwarts like Wal-Mart (WMT - commentary - Trade Now), Proctor & Gamble (PG - commentary - Trade Now) and Exxon Mobil (XOM - commentary - Trade Now) haven't made a penny for investors so far this year. In stark contrast are the mind-boggling gains to be harvested from stocks that were smacked around in the bear market just past. In this cycle, squashed is beautiful. Pulverized is even better.

Before I give you three buy recommendations, each a smashed stock, a word of warning: For the rest of this cycle (two to three years), don't look at the lows in these stocks. It's only going to get you into trouble. You might refrain from buying USG (USG - commentary - Trade Now) at $17 because you could have bought it at less than half that a few months ago. That would be a mistake. Just because we moved from once-in-a-century cheap to once-in-a-generation cheap doesn't mean the bull market is over. Far from it.

Instead of paying attention to the lows of a stock, look instead at its 2007 highs. It'll show you just how much firepower remains in this cycle. As you can see below, of the stocks on my Top Ten list for 2009, many are light-years from their 2007 highs, even after recent gains. Several of these can double or triple and still not come close to pre-recession price levels.

Stocks With Room to Run
Name
Initial Price
Current
% Return
2007 High
Atlas Air
$15.95
$31.81
99.4%
$61.10
Brink's
$24.39
$26.88
10.2%
$68.50
Office Depot
$2.70
$6.16
128.1%
$39.70
USG
$8.32
$17.54
110.8%
$58.70
Harman
$16.27
$32.05
97.0%
$125.10
Carmax
$7.72
$19.33
150.4%
$29.40
Textron
$12.82
$19.25
50.2%
$74.40
Expedia
$7.74
$24.14
211.9%
$35.30
Raymond James
$16.46
$22.97
39.6%
$37.60
Mueller Water
$7.35
$5.58
-24.1%
$19.30
Return
87.3%

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At the time of publication, Alsin and/or ACM was long KHD, MTW, TEX, MWA, RJF, TXT, KMX, HAR, USG, ODP, BCO and XOM.

Arne Alsin is the founder and principal of Alsin Capital Management, a California-based investment adviser. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Alsin appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.



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