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RealMoney.com: Banking
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UBB Is the One Brazilian Bank to Buy
Page 2

 


Looking beyond the stock market figures, though, especially in the context of rising Brazilian inflation, it is important to focus on the quality of a bank's assets. One of the interesting aspects of Unibanco's total loan portfolio, which increased by 29% over the first nine months of 2007, was the focus on consumer and auto loans.

The expansion of personal credit in Brazil is a continuation of the maturation of Brazilian financial disintermediation, which is especially crucial in the high-inflation environment (tending to increase spreads) that this country faces.

Unibanco's loan portfolio is particularly oriented toward retail loans -- specifically payroll loans, in which the borrower's payroll, from which the interest is automatically deducted, serves as a form of collateral. Such loans increased by 152% between 2006 and 2007, while the bank managed to keep credit quality high: The proportion of category D-H loans (with the highest level of credit risk) declined to 4.9% of the total loan portfolio from 6.7% the year prior; the non-accrual loan portfolio (delinquent 60 days or longer) also declined to 4.1% of the total loan portfolio from 5.4% the year before.

The bank achieved all of this while increasing its earnings by 124%, to 0.94 Brazilian reals (51 cents per share); its return on assets by 140 basis points, to 3%; and its net interest margin to 10.4% from 8.9%. All in all, an impressive performance.

Unibanco's ratios also compare favorably to its competitors. The following table, regarding nine-month data extracted from the third-quarter 2007 reports of Unibanco and Banco Bradesco, show Unibanco better positioned in almost all the ratios -- the exceptions being the efficiency ratio and deposit growth. In particular, it seems that credit quality is much higher for Unibanco while the claims ratio (claims-to-premiums) in its insurance department, at 45.5%, is better than Bradesco's 75.3%. Both banks have adequate Tier 1 ratios.

Unibanco vs. Banco Bradesco
EPS growth Net interest margin Return on assets Deposit growth Allowance for loan losses-to-total loans Loan-to-deposit Tier 1 ratio Claims ratio
Unibanco 124% 8.9% 3% -7.3% 4.9% 1.64% 10.9% 45.5%
Banco Bradesco 9.5% 7.5% 2.3% 10% 7.1% 1.61% 18.4% 75.3%

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At the time of publication, Vijayraghavan was long Unibanco.

Vasu Vijayraghavan was an academic finance professor at the University of Paris who has now turned to a new career as a financial consultant. As an academic, she wrote on corporate governance issues, especially in the European context, and she believes in a long-run and balance sheet approach to stock picking.

Currently, Vasu is working as a consultant for lawyers, doing business valuation. She is a Level II CFA candidate and enjoys writing long/short and earnings calls pieces for TheStreet.Com.

Vasu holds a Ph.D. from the University of Michigan and a B.A. from Harvard University.



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