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Action Alert Weekly Roundup

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist

1/26/2002 11:33 AM EST
 

Editor's note: This is the final edition of the Action Alert Weekly Roundup that will appear on RealMoney. This feature, along with Jim Cramer's personal portfolio, will be available only to subscribers of Action Alerts PLUS. Along with access to Cramer's personal portfolio, Action Alerts PLUS subscribers get his stock picks before he trades, and the ideas behind those trades.

Flat year so far, which bothers me. I want to be making some money here, and I want to start making it now! Still, there were a lot of good things this week, so let's look at the actuals.

Aetna (AET - commentary - Cramer's Take): Remember, we are in the bad quarter for Aetna. This is when the management is shrinking the company, getting rid of the bad risks and making it so money will be made no matter what. That may not be something you want to sit through. I would not be surprised if the stock takes a 10% hit when it reports. You have been warned.

Alcoa (AA - commentary - Cramer's Take): Bouncing back nicely. I like the cyclicals here. They start outperforming the moment the Federal Reserve is done cutting rates because that means the recovery is here.

AmerisourceBergen (ABC - commentary - Cramer's Take): People really misjudged this stock when it traded down to the $50s. I was getting an email an hour about what a dog this stock is. That's an appalling rate of complaint. You think I pick these stocks out of the phone book? ABC reported a terrific quarter and continued to show how cheap it is. I like this stock very much. In the high $60s I will start trimming.

AOL Time Warner (AOL - commentary - Cramer's Take): Now that largest shareholder and mutual fund moron Janus is selling the stock, it will be under pressure periodically. That's the bad news. The good news is that Janus owns so many shares and is so concentrated in so few stocks that you have to understand that Janus creates its own bottoms with its selling. This time will be no different.

Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take): Gorgeous quarter, stock spurts up, then runs out of gas again. Frustrating, but I believe the stock is still headed to the $70s.

Best Buy (BBY - commentary - Cramer's Take): Stock's consolidating after a gigantic move. I think that it can keep marching higher because the business remains strong. Not the best season to own the stock, but I don't think it is going to sell down much.

Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Cramer's Take): Last bad quarter? Certainly acts like that. Don't forget, this sucker used to lose a fortune in these recessions. Now it didn't even guide down. How much will it make when things get good?

ChevronTexaco (CVX - commentary - Cramer's Take): Boring old Chev's not hurting me, but it is taking up space. I think north of $90 it will be time to move on if this quarter doesn't show great synergy.

Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take): Everything points to a strong quarter for this company, including the report from PMC-Sierra (PMCS - commentary - Cramer's Take), a key supplier, this week. I like this stock but its cohort is the cohort from hell.

Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take): Still stuck at $50 even after that great quarter. I don't want to be impatient here, as I think this company will trade higher as it brings out the value of Travelers.

Clorox (CLX - commentary - Cramer's Take): Could this move at about $40 be the real deal? I think so. I think this company should be creeping up over time and I like the way it trades. Dirt-cheap, high single-digit grower.

Conexant (CNXT - commentary - Cramer's Take): Impatient people have probably given up on this stock. That's a mistake; it is a break-up candidate, not an earnings story, although earnings are quite strong.

Dell (DELL - commentary - Cramer's Take): Stock's beginning to recover from the negativity about personal computers engendered by Microsoft. You can see the share this company is taking from the pathetic folks at Gateway (GTW - commentary - Cramer's Take).

EMC (EMC - commentary - Cramer's Take): Much-telegraphed good quarter, but now it will stall out. I hope it can get to $18 but I wouldn't count on it because profitability is elusive and competition stiff.

General Dynamics (GD - commentary - Cramer's Take): Morgan Stanley got behind the stock in a big way this week with a big number boost. This is a terrific place to be for 2002, as the budget for defense grows and grows and grows.

General Electric (GE - commentary - Cramer's Take): I am very worried about how this stock is going to play out in a post-Enron world. Too much of this business comes from finance and that will make big funds sell it. So we will just have to wait it out.

Guidant (GDT - commentary - Cramer's Take): Medical device company that seems to have caught the drug bug in that it has stopped going up. I am anxious to replace this stock with Baxter (BAX - commentary - Cramer's Take).

HCA (HCA - commentary - Cramer's Take): Starting to move back up after absorbing a huge amount of selling. This stock is going to surprise on the top line this year and I believe that people are underestimating its earnings power.

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IBM (IBM - commentary - Cramer's Take): I got smoked on this stock this week. Drives me crazy. I thought for sure this was going to be a good quarter; what a letdown. The service businesses really shocked me with their weakness. Don't know what to make of it, honestly, no longer like it. This is a market that doesn't recover from this kind of disappointment. Looking to lighten this position.

Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take): Still trying to come back from the CFO-induced hammering. I am not losing faith. I believe that its cash hoard and its new products this year will produce more revenue growth than expected. No desire to leave it.

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MWD - commentary - Cramer's Take): Really think this stock is just consolidating ahead of a big move. The business is stronger than most brokers' is, and I like it. Stuck right now in the mid-$50s, will need a pickup in underwriting or mergers and acquisitions to break out.

Nokia (NOK - commentary - Cramer's Take): Much hand-wringing about nothing. The quarter was fine. The Morgan Stanley downgrade ahead of the quarter made no sense to me at all. This company is taking monster share from Motorola (MOT - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Ericsson (ERICY - commentary - Cramer's Take).

Oracle (ORCL - commentary - Cramer's Take): Here's one of these stocks that is not going to break out until it says what Siebel Systems (SEBL - commentary - Cramer's Take) said this week: that it has seen a definitive turn. Right now Oracle has said it thinks it has seen a bottom. That's not as good as saying they have seen several months of much better business. Stay tuned. Stock jumps a couple when we get that.

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PepsiCo (PEP - commentary - Cramer's Take): Let's see that quarter already. I think it is a big one. Pepsi is a much better company than Coca-Cola (KO - commentary - Cramer's Take) these days, and I believe we will see that differential much more starkly than in previous years.

Pfizer (PFE - commentary - Cramer's Take): This was the best of the drug-stock quarters I listened to this week: what a well-run company. Dealt with lawsuits head on and made me feel better about the exposure. If there is one drug stock save Abbott (ABT - commentary - Cramer's Take) that can advance this year, it should be this one, but, again, I don't like this group.

Philip Morris (MO - commentary - Cramer's Take): Stock has now struggled back to $50 after a monster amount of churning. Company is inexpensive; dividend is safe. I still think it is a great place to put money.

Target (TGT - commentary - Cramer's Take): Big winner in the decline and fall of Kmart (KM - commentary - Cramer's Take). Not bad. Not bad at all. I think it works its way higher over time.

Tyco (TYC - commentary - Cramer's Take): Disappointing reaction to its breakup as people think the company must be in real trouble. It isn't. I don't mind holding it down here, but the upside is capped by shareholder skepticism of complicated companies.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH - commentary - Cramer's Take): Reported the single best quarterly number that I have seen to date in 2002, which is why I expect that this stock will continue to go higher into 2002. Next stop? $90.

United Technologies (UTX - commentary - Cramer's Take): Good quarter and it keeps going higher. Will get expensive in the early $70s, when I will take something off the table.

Universal Health Realty (UHT - commentary - Cramer's Take): Holding this one for sale. Need the space. Need the capital.

Verizon (VZ - commentary - Cramer's Take): Struggling mightily on the cell-phone side but all else is good. I think this stock is too cheap, and I don't get why the heck it is below $50. What a good buy here.

Viacom (VIA.B - commentary - Cramer's Take): Worst is over, asbestos-wise, and I would be taking the big swing right here -- and will do so as soon as my restrictions allow me.

Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take): Before Conexant's stock faltered, this was the company I received the most heat about. I kept saying wait until the quarter. We got a great one, and now the stock keeps going higher. And I think that it will keep going up from here.

Constellation Energy Group (CEG - commentary - Cramer's Take), Merck (MRK - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Halliburton (HAL - commentary - Cramer's Take) are held for sale. Don't like any of them.







James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Aetna, Alcoa, AmerisourceBergen, AOL Time Warner, Bank of America, Best Buy, Caterpillar, ChevronTexaco, Cisco, Citigroup, Clorox, Conexant, Constellation Energy Group, Dell, EMC, Fluor, General Dynamics, General Electric, Guidant, Halliburton, HCA, IBM, Merck, Microsoft, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, Nokia, Oracle, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Philip Morris, Target, Tyco, United Technologies, UnitedHealth Group, Universal Health Realty, Verizon, Viacom and Wells Fargo. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to jjcletters@thestreet.com.
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