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Action Alert Weekly Roundup

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist

1/5/2002 1:14 PM EST
 

Editor's note: Jim Cramer's personal portfolio is now available only to subscribers of Action Alerts PLUS. Along with access to Jim Cramer's personal portfolio, subscribers to Action Alerts PLUS get Jim's stock picks before he trades, and the ideas behind those trades.

Only a few more weeks during which RealMoney people will be able to receive these Action Alert Roundups. I have heard your voice, Action Alert Plus subscribers, and I understand your desire to husband the product to yourselves.

Another good week for the portfolio and I like the way we are positioned, even though my defensive stocks, like AmerisourceBergen, HCA, Pepsi and the like, just aren't going to work at the beginning of the year. They can't all go up at once!

(I am holding for sale the following stocks because of high risk/low reward: Constellation Energy (CEG - commentary - Cramer's Take), Fluor (FLR - commentary - Cramer's Take), Halliburton (HAL - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Merck (MRK - commentary - Cramer's Take).)

Let's review the actuals:

Aetna (AET - commentary - Cramer's Take): Stock ramped mysteriously on Friday. I am betting that 2002 is the year this company either gets sold or turns around its earnings. This stock won't be "defensive" as it is a true turnaround. I don't think you can wait until the second quarter to buy, as I know some of you think. It can be bought up to $35.

Alcoa (AA - commentary - Cramer's Take): This stock has now gotten back to where it was before it preannounced a horrid quarter. That's great, great news. I think that there's a big turn coming at Alcoa because of the resurgent U.S. economy. Can be bought to $39 with not much risk.

AmerisourceBergen (ABC - commentary - Cramer's Take): Under pressure whenever we hear that drug pricing is coming down. I don't think it is, not when the president and Congress aren't in favor of that happening. People rotate out of stocks like this when the beginning of the year brings optimism. I suspect it will be rocky. Those who can't handle turbulence should exit now and buy back in the mid-$50s.

AOL Time Warner (AOL - commentary - Cramer's Take): Very little risk now that the Journal has taken a few whacks at it. If AOL guides down, the stock does little; if it guides even on Monday, this stock goes up; and if it says good things, it goes higher. Risk being taken out by negative press. I like it on Monday.

Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take): Like watching paint dry, but I like it. Let's see how it does when it reports; I bet it moves up big when it does. Great rebound play and great lay-on rates. Buy it to $65.

Best Buy (BBY - commentary - Cramer's Take): The best retailer in the U.S. and I like it very much. I think that this stock can really break out here, and I would still buy it after this move. Beware, there are people who wish this stock would go lower, but I don't see that happening. I will pounce if it does.

Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Cramer's Take): Looks like CAT can finally break out here. The company says business is good; I think it is just going to get better and better, and I like it here. I would still buy it, as it could be a big winner in 2002.

ChevronTexaco (CVX - commentary - Cramer's Take): Still good, with a good yield, but I don't love the sector. It's my only one, and that's because it will do well because of the consolidation of Texaco offices. Still can't believe that the government let this deal through.

Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take): This company is expensive, but on any good news it jumps to $25. I don't think Cisco is going back to the old days; I do think that the stock can be bought for a nice move, though.

Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take): The cheapest major bank stock other than Wells Fargo. I think that Citigroup will be bringing out the value all year, with the start being this Travelers' spinoff. Liking this stock in the low $50s very much. If it got to the $40s, it would be a gift!

Clorox (CLX - commentary - Cramer's Take): Very defensive name, so I can't expect any real outperformance here. But, the fundamentals are excellent. We will just bide our time right now in this quality company.

Conexant (CNXT - commentary - Cramer's Take): Bought a ton earlier in the week. I think this stock got hurt Friday from rumors of a Nokia guidedown. I don't think that is going to happen. I think it is an opportunity to buy more Conexant.

Dell (DELL - commentary - Cramer's Take): I feel great about this one. Personal computers are hot -- even Compaq (CPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take) is working! Dell could break out to the $30s here because business is strong.

EMC (EMC - commentary - Cramer's Take): Looking to scale out here in the high teens to low $20s. I think business is OK, but not good enough to go higher than that range.

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General Dynamics (GD - commentary - Cramer's Take): I am furious at myself that I don't own more of this stock. It is a winner, will be a huge winner for the rest of the year. I see this stock going back to old highs in the second quarter. I would buy it up to $84.

General Electric (GE - commentary - Cramer's Take): Stock may not be "offensive" enough to break out here, but I think it will mark time to trade higher. Don't chase it.

Guidant (GDT - commentary - Cramer's Take): Stock is too defensive. I wouldn't buy it up here.

HCA (HCA - commentary - Cramer's Take): Tenet (THC - commentary - Cramer's Take) put on a good show. HCA is not as good a company as Tenet, but it is cheaper and I like it. Not giving up on this one.

IBM (IBM - commentary - Cramer's Take): Company still going to $150 at which it won't be expensive. Big beneficiary of the bounceback in the economy.

Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take): Still not cheap. Up the most of any Dow stock last year, now consolidating the gains. Personal computer business is terrific.

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MWD - commentary - Cramer's Take): Sold a little to buy some Tyco, but I needed the money. I think that the business here is good and getting better, but I don't want to chase it.

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Nokia (NOK - commentary - Cramer's Take): Stock was raided down badly Friday, and I don't think there is much fire to this smoke. Nokia is a share-taker, and I think that its business will continue to be strong in 2002.

Oracle (ORCL - commentary - Cramer's Take): This company bounced this week. Ellison speaks next week, and I think he will be upbeat and this stock will trade in the high teens. Lower risk, lots of optimism in the group.

PepsiCo (PEP - commentary - Cramer's Take): Very defensive and will just mark time; I can handle it, can you?

Pfizer (PFE - commentary - Cramer's Take): Lawsuits are going to keep this stock from doing anything for a while. I can wait, can you? (See above!) At $36, risk is in.

Philip Morris (MO - commentary - Cramer's Take): See above, but it at least has a dividend that is much bigger than cash! Good momentum but not enough vs. the Dows and the Alcoas. Will buy more in the low $40s.

Target (TGT - commentary - Cramer's Take): Excellent retailer and I think it will work higher. Still inexpensive, but let's wait for a pullback.

TRW (TRW - commentary - Cramer's Take): Don't care for it right here and would sell it if I could because of the large debt load.

Tyco (TYC - commentary - Cramer's Take): Get ready for a negative article from the Times that will cause this stock to trade slightly lower, and get ready to buy more.

United Technologies (UTX - commentary - Cramer's Take): Still excellent stock, but has been so strong that I would wait for a pullback. It will happen. Buy in the lower $60s.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH - commentary - Cramer's Take): Very defensive and could mark time, but will ultimately go to the $90s. I know that's a high-falutin' goal, but I like it.

Universal Health Realty (UHT - commentary - Cramer's Take): Too defensive and I wouldn't buy it unless you needed yield. I want to sell it when I can.

Verizon (VZ - commentary - Cramer's Take): Starting to move higher as people realize that the costs of Sept. 11 are finally mostly behind it. I think the earnings will explode higher this year. Still cheap here.

Viacom (VIA.B - commentary - Cramer's Take): Best operating leverage coming out of a recession of any media play. Still think it can be bought right here.

Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take): Still cheap, still not breaking out, still driving me crazy and I think that it will have to see the quarter before it can advance. Would buy it aggressively right here.







James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Aetna, Alcoa, AmerisourceBergen, AOL Time Warner, Bank of America, Best Buy, Caterpillar, ChevronTexaco, Cisco, Citigroup, Clorox, Conexant, Constellation Energy Group, Dell, EMC, Fluor, General Dynamics, General Electric, Guidant, Halliburton, HCA, IBM, Merck, Microsoft, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, Nokia, Oracle, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Philip Morris, Schlumberger, Target, TRW, Tyco, United Technologies, UnitedHealth Group, Universal Health Realty, Verizon, Viacom and Wells Fargo. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to jjcletters@thestreet.com.
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