In recent days the major media companies have incurred significant losses as a result of write downs. Many in the investment community tend to obscure these losses and focus instead on the "run rate" of earnings going forward. I don't see it this way I see these losses as real not mythical. Escpecially given the magnitude of what is being reported. I can understand some modest losses that are incurred due to the imprecise nature of valuation. However, when your writing down multiple billions, that is truly a loss of value of the enterprise.Of course the way the game is played on the street, it may be in the companies best interests to "get these losses behind them". In some respects that is a function of the lack of respect a balance sheet gets from mainstream analysts relative to the income statement. The weaker managements such as Time Warner have recognized this and are essentially addicted to the one time write off process. I am slightly more benovolent to News Corp. At least they assembled some decent assets,albeit it extreme valuations.At the end of the day both are tainted by the same brush though. The only way out is to run their base businesses better and avoid acquistions for the foreseeable future.
Position: Long TWX
Another month ticks by, and once again it is time for everyone's favorite economic data point/recency effect proof, the Employment Situation Report.
Consensus is for a -524,000 job loss, out of a range of -750,000 to -450,000; On U3 Unemployment Rate - the consensus is for a jump from 7.2% to 7.5%, with a 7.2% to 7.6% range.
This data release is the most over-analyzed, least important economic report for investors. And yet each month, we go through this charade that the we know the precise number of jobs lost and what it means to equities. Traders eagerly await the data and respond to it with enthusiasm. To many, NFP is the single most important economic data point there is.
The polite word for this is Poppycock.
Here is the statistical reality: We have a working employment force of more than 140 million people, and we do not really have the ability (yet) to measure the change in realtime of a few 100,000 people each month. Instead, we get a reasonable approximation of what those changes were, a number that is neither precise (similar results) nor accurate (closeness to reality).
But it is, as the expression goes, close enough for government work.
continued here . . .
Position: ∞
On top of a quarter that was slightly to moderately worse than expected in every segment except for Cable Networks, NWSA slashed guidance to a 30% drop in operating income. This is by far the worst decline among major entertainment conglomerates reflecting the company's asset mix. However, NWSA is on a June fiscal year which means they may have the three weakest quarters of the economic downturn in their guidance. Other companies with a December fiscal year at least get the possibility of an easy comparison in the seasonally important December quarter.
In November guidance was lowered to a low to mid-teen drop in operating income. The move to -30% indicates how rapidly advertising and DVD sales have weakened. These trends are hurting NWSA more than peers because of outsized exposure to the weakest areas of advertising: local TV stations and newspapers. Fox also had a tough year at the box office which inflicted extra damage on holiday DVD sales.
Secular challenges due to its asset mix may limit NWSA's cyclical upturn. As a result, I think the company is a low priority idea. Time Warner (TWX) remains the best idea and the modest drop in its stock this week while media stocks as a group were routed supports my thesis that it is the best place to be if you are investing in mega cap media.
Position: TWX is widely held in client accounts. TWX is held in my personal account.
859.75 = 86.40
856.50 = 86.05
853 = 85.75
849/850 = 85.30/85.40
846 = 85
839.25 = 84.35
836.75 = 84.10
833 = 83.75
829 = 83.30
822.50 = 82.70
816 = 82.05
Position: none
Thought I would get my levels out early with NFP likely to make things interesting pre-market. Yesterday's market move was impressive and really got into gear once GS broke free of 90...it continues to be a stock one must keep track of. I would be more confident in continued upside if we hadn't had 3 days (out of the last 4) of sub 100 readings on the index put/call ratio and that insanely low reading yesterday (I initially thought it was a mistake)...so we are probably due for a whack in the near future.
If the NFP number surprises traders to the upside we may see the emini break free of the 846 and 849/850area. A break of these two areas sends us to (and likely through) weak resistance at 853 and stronger resistance at 856.50. If the emini can push through 856.50 it will run into another moderate resistance level at 859.75...which I think would exhaust the bulls (at least for today).
If the bears want to take control of this market again they will need to push through initial support at 839.25 and 836.75. A break of the 836.75 area sends us to weak support at 833 and stronger support at 829. Look for the bulls to try and defend this area...if the market is unable to hold here we could drop down to 822.50 before finding buyers again. My extreme low for the day is 816.
Position: none
The continued rebound in the Baltic index is impressive...more than 9% today.
Position: none
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Scott Rothbort
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| Long Wal-Mart/Short Dollar Tree Pair Trade Update |
2/6/2009 8:29 AM EST
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Last week, I pointed out a long Wal-Mart (WMT)/short Dollar Tree (DLTR) pair trade.
Yesterday's big move in the right direction for both stocks made the trade worth taking off. I believe you can reload. Wait. For now, I am out.
I will be unveiling more such trades in the future in RealMoney. Today I will be fielding questions on Stockpickr answers.
Position: No positions
Jan Unemployment Rate: 7.6% vs 7.5% consensus
January Nonfarm Payrolls: -598K vs -540K consensus, prior revised to -577K from -524K
Position: n/a
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David Sterman
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| Monthly Unemployment Numbers Roughly in Line--Approaching a Peak? |
2/6/2009 8:36 AM EST
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Tony C. and others will have a deeper read on the data later, but these numbers are as to be expected. Weakness was most notable in manufacturing, relative to forecasts.
Bob Marcin noted yesterday that we may be moving towards even higher job losses in coming months. I'm not so sure. It seems as if the big planned layoffs are coming now, and the expected bankruptcy filings (unexpected losses) will dominate the trends later this year. I'm in the camp, that the jobless numbers will keep rising, but am still leaning towards a peak unemployment rate closer to 8.5% than 10.0%, if the stimulus boosts sentiment and we start to get an inventory re-stocking process.
Position: none
The reaction to the jobs numbers was pretty mute... The QQQQ popped about 20 cents.. This indicates to me that the market expected worse.. The last 3 out of 4 days of trading provided early buying and that is what I will be looking for... The trading yesterday, was much stronger than I expected.. Normally on a big gap down day you will see a pop then a drop... The bulls are in charge... I am watching HIG this morning, down on disappointing earnings and cutting their dividend... I will be looking for a drop to around 11 and consider going long for a ride up to 12..
Position: NM
Traders seem inclined to want to come in long for stimulus/bank plan. Not a bad strategy given where the futures are and the oversold position but i have little faith in the plan or Geithner so i am tempted to be a scale seller TODAY!
Position: none
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Tony Crescenzi
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| Payrolls and the Market's Preparedness
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2/6/2009 9:09 AM EST
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As I noted yesterday in my post on jobless claims, the main theme today is the same as in the past few months: The degree of preparedness for today's data was extremely high. This is what has enabled financial conditions to improve from the abysmal conditions of last fall.
In September, a payroll loss of 127,000 was reported for August. Losses accelerated in subsequent
months: 403,000, 423,000, 584,000, 524,000. During this time, equities have traded in a range, money market rates have fallen substantially, and credit spreads have tightened, although this latest development is more recent.
Position: None
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Peter Kenny
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| Beggars Can't Be Choosers |
2/6/2009 9:13 AM EST
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Yesterday morning's new sector call was Large Cap Tech - more specifically the SOX index. This week we have seen some interesting action in the space. We have seen an uptick in trading volume and interest. This week we have seen the SOX trade through 212, then 220. If we clear 225 and close above, we could see a move to 238 next week - no problem. Between short covering and institutional sellers lifting - in hopes of incrementally better pricing - there is a nice updraft in the sector.
Half of the job losses for the entire year of '08 came in the last quarter. That is very sobering and speaks to the accelerating nature of the macro trends that are firmly in place. The only employment sector that did not experience job loss was Health Care ( one of our 3 defensive sector calls) and education. Both of these sectors speak plainly to the defensive nature of where we should be in terms of allocating recourses.
Unemployment currently @ 7.6 and clearly climbing. Virtually every macro trend is working against the market but we still saw some interesting internals yesterday. We got a nice uptick in volume and very nice breadth in terms of the move higher in the indexes. I strongly suspect the conversation around revisiting "Mark To Market" was the principal driver for the market going higher yesterday.
Dollar in mild uptrend VS Euro - Not equity friendly.
VIX placid - not much movement - would like to have seen a little easing yesterday with the rally in equities.
I am still dominantly defensive - until we see a sign that MTM is altered - in which case we could see a bear market rally.
For the brave of heart I reiterate financials (XLF), and SOX.
Position: none
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Doug Kass
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| Memo to Peter 'Jersey' Kenny
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2/6/2009 9:30 AM EST
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"Beggars can't be choosers" reminds me of one of Grandma Koufax's best lines: "Dougie, if wishes were horses, then beggars would ride."
Good meeting you the other night with Princess Vespa and Art "Mr. Numbers" Cashen.
Position: None
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Jeff Miller
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| Employment Report and Reaction |
2/6/2009 9:34 AM EST
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Job losses for January were even worse than suggested by parallel economic data from UM sentiment, ISM, and weekly jobless claims (for the same time period). As Tony C notes (and predicted some months ago), the widespread expectation for major losses has diminished the impact on stocks. The negative story can be told in many ways, with higher unemployment rates across the board. Labor force participation is lower, partly because people make alternative choices in weak economic times, e.g. more education. I see only one small positive factor -- the number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or longer has remained constant (at a high and unacceptable level --I said it was a small positive). The birth/death benchmark adjustments actually reduced the impact on the January report. Using data from the last few years, ending in March 2008, the gross addition of jobs per year has been cut from about 900K to 500K. A couple of years ago I asked the key BLS expert if this adjustment could ever go negative. The 500K addition was about as low as it got during analysis for model development. As I have written, the job creation modeling embedded in the rest of the process has done most of the work. I cannot do justice to this in a CC piece, but that is the summary.
Position: nm
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Brian Gilmartin
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| Long-term equity returns - one overwhelmingly bullish fact |
2/6/2009 9:56 AM EST
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In our client meeting this year, we have been showing clients the Ibbotson data which reflects asset-class returns since 1951. A fact that will come as a surprise to no one on this site, is that large-cap returns are the worst since the 1930's, and the cumulative return for the decade as of 12/31/08, if you simply add up the returns on the S&P 500 for each of the years from 2000 through 2008 is a negative 14%. I was sharing this info with Norm Conley last night via instant messaging, and Norm stated that as of 1/31/09, the 10-year return nominally for the S&P 500 the worst since 1938 (for the same period) and in rela terms is much worse. The one catch is that for some of our original clients that date back to late 1995, when we first hung out the shingle, as of 12/31/08, the "average annual return" on the S&P, is still in the neighborhood of 5%, which is in the neighborhood of normal, expected returns of 4% - 7% on equities over the long run. Given all this I'm wondering if November 21 was "the" bottom for US large-cap stocks. Long-term returns are certainly pushing us to increase our equity weighting in portfolios and to avoid hitting the panic button.
Position: long SPY, S&P 500 index funds, etc.
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Jeff Miller
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| Government in Action (?!) |
2/6/2009 9:58 AM EST
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I realize that many (most?) of my RM colleagues do not like the stimulus package nor the pace of decision-making. We are witnessing the US democracy in action. This is actually very speedy! I predicted in CC that the House Bill would generate Senate opposition, and the real test would come in a conference committee. We are seeing this play out. The best investment decisions require that we put aside our opinions as citizens and instead become policy analysts. Most pundits are trying to influence the content of the bill, but that is not our RM mission.
Here are a couple of fearless forecasts. First, we will get a stimulus bill. A colleague here said they are "cobbling it together." Yes. We policy guys call it coalition-building. Everyone involved realizes that this is the best chance to get funding for projects important to constituents. It is a lobbyist's dream. Enough programs will get added to from a winning coalition. The overall concept is popular. It will get done. Compromises are not beautiful. Second, if the economic plan to be announced next week does something significant to address illiquid assets, especially if it suspends mark-to-market, it will be the single most bullish event. As many of us have pointed out, this ill-timed experiment has subtracted regulatory capital at WARP speed. The TARP approach can never keep up. The new administration has gotten a lot of opinions, including those of market experts, and the signs are that they see the significance of this issue. Volcker certainly does. This is not about the evaluation of the specific financial companies. It is about the pace of de-leveraging.
Position: nm
Dave,
I have seen little evidence suggesting we are near a "peak" in job losses. Corporate earnings have been very weak (as expected) but with few signs of stabilizing in the short-term. Bellwethers Intel (INTC), General Electric (GE), Wal-Mart (WMT) and Microsoft (MSFT) have given little or no guidance creating even more uncertainty.
Also, stocks surging today after job data were mostly in line with the whisper numbers. We saw the same outcome yesterday with same-store sales. I get it. But investors should use caution buying into this market where job losses are averaging more than 500k per month and same-store sales - for many retailers - are in the negative double digits.
Is most of the bad news priced in? Still a tough question but for ERTS with $8 a share in cash and no debt, the answer heading into the Q was yes. But SKX turned out to be a value trap. Tough market but opportunities exist. Just look at RIMM and POT.
Position: none
I am loving this action and here is how I am playing it.
After covering all of my short calls on Monday, I have begun employing a similar strategy that I used last week into Monday into this rally.
I'm selling out of the money Feb $SPY calls into the ramp. I am putting them out slowly and somewhat passively like a human vwap on the offer and will wait until the end of the day to sell the majority if we get the monster rip that I have been anticipating.
If we get the rip, I am short into an extension high and a weekend of theta and if we don't I will have small profits.
I am taking profits in a few more of the $SPY puts I wrote earlier this week.
Also, I am stalking the 75 $RTH calls and would love to write them into an extension high close.
Finally, I continue to believe that the world is on tilt and so I am playing smaller, less aggressively and further from the money than normal.
Position: Short SPY Puts, Short SPY Calls
there are a lot of stocks that are shrugging of downgrades. There were a host of downgrades of RIMM after that last quarter. There was much criticism of Verizon's quarter. Goldman downgraded both X and QCOM in the last two weeks. All stocks are UP since thre downgrades. Very telling....
Position: qcom/gs
Frank, I clearly hold no specific gauge on where the number tops out, but think it's important to differentiate between planned layoff cuts and unplanned ones that come from bankruptcy filings. If past downturns are any guide, the bulk of the planned trimmings are taking place as we speak (as 2009 budgets are cemented). The unplanned part (bankruptcies) will be ongoing and it's hard to gauge how that will play out.
As I just noted to a reader, the broad consensus seems to be emerging that 2009 will represent big monthly cuts all year long to get past the 10% mark, and I just think it's too soon to know how the second half will play out. Then again, if Washington manages to bungle all this stimulus effort, look out below.
Position: none
If we break through the 859.75 area watch for resistance at 865.25 and 869. Whether you are playing long or short...keep it light and tight.
865.25 = 86.90
869 = 87.30
Position: Short SPY
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Peter Kenny
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| Thank you Uncle Doug ! |
2/6/2009 11:11 AM EST
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It was a very real honor meeting you. That was fun with Princess and Art. I am still amazed by some of the shorts you have put out there - simply amazing calls. Specifically in the "Specialist" space.
Position: none
Shorts are not pressing SKF bet.. letting them lift. Very rough shorts here.. very rough, and you can see how much they panicked... State Street set the tone: dividend cut and a huge ramp!
Position: none
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Peter Kenny
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| Got Financials - Got Rally... Continued |
2/6/2009 11:46 AM EST
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My reference yesterday to the significance of a rally (specifically in financials) in anticipation of M.T.M. being revisited as part of the over financial stimulus plan coming out of D.C. seems to continue to pan out. Financials of course led us higher yesterday and are doing so today. Positive comments on the space from Bove have added some fuel to the fire - frankly very welcome fuel. The breadth of the move is impressive but I get this " Buy on the rumor, sell on the news" feeling. I am very skeptical of anything out of Washington working but am also suspicious that the market may have priced in an immediate and positive jolt to the system as a result of passage of the stimulus. It took us decades to get here, I think it might be a little pre mature to expect this market to turn on a dime. The best we can hope for is a floor in the market and we may get that - depending of course on how specifically the Good Bank/Bad Bank scenario plays itself out.
Back at the ranch; SOX added 3% this morning before settling in marginally higher on the day - following yesterday 4% move higher. Obviously, the Financials continue their outperformance and lead the market higher - smartly.
Position: none
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Bob Byrne
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| Hunting the Beast... |
2/6/2009 12:02 PM EST
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Though my timeframe is much shorter than Doug's...I too am fading GS. Stops are tight.
Position: Short GS
As per Cramer's comments on SKF longs feeling heat today, the XLF is bucking up right at its 20-day moving average at 9.59. A short-term tactical trade could be employed (a bet that yesterday's spike low will hold as support) over the next few days: buy on a pullback into the gap area formed from yesterday's close to today's low ($9.29-$9.11).
If financials have indeed found a near-term trading bottom, we would look for an XLF move that minimally targets $10.98 (an equal legs move up in point terms as was the $2.44 move from the Jan. 20 low to the Jan. 28 high). The stop out would be a daily close beneath yesterday's low of $8.54.
Position: No positions
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Damien Park
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| If at first you don't succeed... |
2/6/2009 12:24 PM EST
|
Icahn sent notice to Biogen (BIIB) that he's nominating four board candidates for election this year.
He was unsuccessful trying to replace three board members last year (two nominees are repeat candidates this year) and it's unclear to me why things might change in his favor this time around.
Icahn still owns about the same amount (4.8%) and the institutional shareholders look the same. Sure the stock is down but that's hardly a good argument in this environment...
Ichan's biggest point of contention last year was that the board botched a sale of the Company in 2007. It'll be tough for him to convince other shareholders the time is right to sell this $15B EV business in this environment...
Position: None
Sequenom is having a rough week (down about 16% for the week at this point) after releasing their much anticipated data last week. Certainly part of it was just plain sell-on-the-news action, but I think the majority of the sell-off was due to more fundamental reasons. First, the company had a miscalculated some figures in their release last Thursday. The errors were mathematical in nature and not data related, but nonetheless, the mistakes look very JV, or Bush League, if you prefer. I don't have any reason to question the integrity of the data, unless the wool is being pulled over our eyes with plain fraud. But this gave the shorts full cover to fire away as the stock fell into a vacuum.Second, there has been chatter over the last couple of days surrounding emerging competition. I am less concerned about this as it appears to squared operate within the patent landscape that Sequenom has developed. Nonetheless, it certainly begs the question what the landscape will ultimately look like down the road.After speaking with the CEO yesterday, my questions were answered satisfactorily and I remain in the stock. I do think this stock will require patience or a substantial amount of trading as we are entering a catalyst vacuum for a while. I plan on doing the latter and supplementing it with options trading as well - most likely writing premium.
Position: Long SQNM, short SQNM calls
fyi...MS has fallen out of bed.
Position: none
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Jim Cramer
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| ERIC OBERG--KATH REIT |
2/6/2009 1:17 PM EST
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If you want to read a creative idea to end the housing crisis, one I have not read ANYWHERE else, look to the right of this box and read Eric Oberg's piece,. Oberg's done ground-breaking work in these pages on the toxic ETFs like SKF--but this is one that presents a complicated but workable solution that Geithner/Summers should consider this weekend.
Position: none
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Doug Kass
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| Memo to Bob 'Burn Baby' Byrne
|
2/6/2009 1:21 PM EST
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I am shorting more Morgan Stanley (MS) in here.
Position: Short MS
This market is speaking to Obama. The premeditated leaks regarding the different aspects of the banking plan are shaping policy. Exact opposite of the Bush administration. I really believe that Obama knows he needs to market with him, a market friendly bank plan will give him the jump start he needs to turn this ship around.
Position: nm
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OptionMonster
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| Ambak Financial Options Active |
2/6/2009 1:33 PM EST
|
By Pete Najarian
Ambac Financial Group (ABK) is seeing unusual options activity as its shares rise 17 percent on the day.
The stock move is only $0.19, as ABK is at $1.31 in midday trading after struggling to stay above the $1 mark for much of this week. The options today are active at the March 2.5 strike, where a chunk of nearly 20,000 calls were bought for $0.15 against minimal open interest of 107 contracts. Those calls are now going for $0.20 to $0.25, according to OptionMonster's proprietary systems, which track unusual options trading in real time.
The action got our attention because it followed earlier activity we cited on Jan. 28, when the May 2.5 calls were trading on heavy volume as the stock traded at $1.23. Those calls, which went for $0.25 and $0.30 back then, are up a tad to $0.35 and $0.40.
Ambak, which insures bonds, made headlines earlier this week for granting $3 million in cash bonuses to four executives after its stock had fallen 95 percent in 2008. The company is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 25 before the market opens.
Position: Long ABK calls
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Jim Cramer
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| Benefit of the doubt/China |
2/6/2009 2:01 PM EST
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I am fascinated by the endless benefit of the doubt that Tim Geithner gets. Of course i think it is just short-covering but people so much want to believe.. The only thing i believe in is china/baltic freight because i think China is using this moment to blow everyone away... There is also a belief that the worst is over for unemployment, which is also a continual theme.. And people want to say "csco's bad and it rallied so stocks must be down too much." Remember unemployment is a lagging indicator, stimulus is the future...
Position: csco
Tim Geitner reminds me of the old New York Knick forward Gerald Wilkens. On the surface he was flashy. And of course he had that Wilkens name that made you think he was like his older brother Dominique. However,there are certain players at the end of a close game that you want to have the ball and there are others who you wished were on the other team. Wilkens was always one of the latter. Does anyone in the capital markets spectrum really want to see Geitner taking the shot in the clutch?
Position: none
So GE, which is a beneficiary of governmental funds and guarantees because of their precarious financial position, is going to pay its regular quarterly dividend of 31 cents. Why not just bypass the middleman and have the federal government issue a 'stock purchase' rebate to shareholders? I'm sure the taxpayers would be very happy to give guys like Warren Buffett and Jack Welch some money because they happen to own GE stock.
What a great use of funds.
Position: None
Eric Oberg has written another interesting piece. This time he discussed creating a huge REIT out of defaulted homes. Yesterday I was discussing with some academic colleagues at Seton Hall another plan. This one would enable defaulted mortgages to be turned into perpetual interest only mortgages. On a $250,000 6% mortgage the borrowed would save nearly $3,000 in payments a year. On the margin many people might be able to keep their homes. Also, instead of a tax deduction for property taxes, how about a tax credit up to a certain amount? Frankly, there are many creative plans that could be put into effect but our leaders are short on creativity on long on waste.
Position: none
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Tom Au
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| Dumped My GE--Again |
2/6/2009 3:16 PM EST
|
Sold my GE (GE) again, and at another loss. The stock is yielding some 11%, on a badly supported dividend, which is to say that it is junky.
I had been so down on "legacy" issues that I had overlooked problems stemming from the current administration. It seems that Jeff Immelt has hardly met an acquisition (or a debt) that he didn't like. Most of the company's financial leverage took place under his watch, not his predecessor's.
Basically, I felt that the stock's decline down to about $20 was due to the the unwinding of "pumping" by the previous adminstration. But the fall from $20 to current levels is clearly Immelt's fault. And his thumbing his nose at the company's AAA rating was the last straw for me.
I hold management more accountable for their balance sheets than their income statements. With income, you can only take "what the market gives you" (to paraphrase an old footfall saying). But the balance sheet is something entirely under your control.
Position: Divested of GE a second time
Treasury Secretary Geithner is now scheduled to announce his bank bailout plan on Monday at noon. Given the action today I propose that we perpetually delay the announcement so that we can continue to rally in anticipation of a magical solution. As long as we don't actually have any details I believe we can rally for another week or so.
Position: None
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Peter Kenny
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| Short term over bought |
2/6/2009 3:25 PM EST
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Expectations for Tim Geithner are so high - dare I say I think he may be as short term over bought as the financials. Not to say we won't get a little follow through on a quiet Monday morning pre-address. I, like Jim, feel as though he is being given an awful lot of "house credit".
Position: none
Rev's use of "magical" describing the plan is apropos. Satisfaction guaranteed!I suspect anything short of a suspension of mark-to-market and perhaps a Treasury official doing a back flip on camera might end up being disappointing. I'm open and flexible to some magic, however.
Position: None
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Jason Schwarz
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| Most Important Question Of The Day |
2/6/2009 3:50 PM EST
|
The most important question of the day was asked by Maria Bartiromo in her interview with Ken Lewis. Q: What were you thinking when you let the Merrill deal go through? A: (My paraphrase) Ken Lewis along with the Fed and the Treasury came to the conclusion that not getting the deal done would have posed a systematic risk to the financial system and the country; or in other words, Lewis took one for the team and the government has his back. Expect the government to be friendly to BAC shareholders and in the end these guys may have the brightest future of all. Lewis told Bartiromo that January performance at Countrywide was red hot, the deterioration in Merrill's trading had vastly improved and he politely reminded everyone that Bank of America was profitable in 07 as well as 08. On January 1st this stock was above $14 a share, it's headed back in this window.
Position: long bac
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Steve Gear
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| Bank of America--note to Jason |
2/6/2009 4:10 PM EST
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Jason--You may well be correct--My sources tell me that Bank of America is making great strides with integrating Countrywide and Merrill. Unfortunately I am still hearing they have not completely got their hands around the Merrill Exposure yet....maybe a little caveot emptor should still exist.....giving it another quarter to wash out the portfolio may or may not get you the best price...but its a lower risk proposition....
Position: none
"If you mix raisins with turds, they are still turds." -- Charlie Munger, May 2000."Taking one for the team" doesn't seem like a real business plan.
Position: None
Boy this HIG really killed people. That was an unforgivable set of statements from this one time great company. It is amazing how all day today there was a tremendous schism between what HIG was saying and so many of the other financials, even as HIG's problems are similar to those that were flying up today.... The outfit should be run as a runoff operation. It has failed its mission.
Position: none
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