This Perilous Preannouncement Season

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They hate Inktomi (INKT:Nasdaq - news - boards) yesterday. They love Inktomi today. They hate Nortel (NT:NYSE - news - boards) for a week. Now they love Nortel. They can't stand Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE - news - boards); now they can't get enough of it. Vignette (VIGN:Nasdaq - news - boards) looks like it is going to miss; Vignette looks like it is going to blow the quarter. Kana (KANA:Nasdaq - news - boards) seemed hapless; now we are thinking Kana gets a bid, it's acting so well.

This market is doing everything it can to confound people. It is making fools of people almost daily. Why is it so fickle? Some of it is because of where we are in the quarter. We are in heavy preannouncement season and you can extrapolate like a wildman. Colgate (CL:NYSE - news - boards) could be Este Lauder (EL:NYSE - news - boards) or Procter (PG:NYSE - news - boards), to name two strong stocks recently.

SCI (SCI:NYSE - news - boards) could be Solectron (SLR:NYSE - news - boards) or Jabil Circuit (JBL:NYSE - news - boards). National Discount Broker (NDB:NYSE - news - boards) could be Schwab (SCH:NYSE - news - boards) or Knight (NITE:Nasdaq - news - boards).

We haven't seen a preannouncement season like this one in a long time. We are seeing blowups in every industry. The bulls have to hope the blowups are because of market-share loss. Maybe Colgate is hiding behind currency, and it is losing share. Maybe McDonald's (MCD:NYSE - news - boards) is losing business to Wendy's (WEN:NYSE - news - boards). PPG's (PPG:NYSE - news - boards) loss? Maybe it is somebody else's gain. But the bears say,"When it is this widespread, no one is safe." May (MAY:NYSE - news - boards) and PPG and Solutia (SOI:NYSE - news - boards) and McDonald's and Colgate and SCI and can't all be a bunch of market-share-losing idiots, can they?

So each day we have a whoosh down in a group because one of its members succumbs. Then if nothing happens the next day, we take the stocks back.You have to expect you will fall down in this market. Reminds me of when we tied pillows to our girls' bottoms the first time they ice-skated. Then the worst that happens is they go boomie. There are no pillows, though, in this game. After a while, you come home pretty sore.

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James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long the common stock of Nortel, Schwab and Knight. The fund was also long Colgate and McDonald's calls and as well Knight puts. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at James J. Cramer .