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Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note
10,425.63 1,114.07 2,237.49 36.86
Oil *
73.02
UP
96.74
UP
11.60
UP
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UP
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10 Yr
3.69%
SPDR Gold
107.02
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+1.05%
+1.17%
+3.95%
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Commentary: Wrong! Dispatches from the Front
*New* Alerts! Please click here...

Metrocall's Default a Sign of the Times
By James J. Cramer

3/15/01 2:10 PM ET


Read More
Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.
You could probably give a gosh darn about Metrocall (MCLLC:OTC SC - news - boards), the wireless data and messaging company that reneged on its debt this morning. The stock's been a complete dog. It traded at $14 a year ago but has been pretty much downhill ever since. It probably didn't even register when the stock was halted. You needed a microscope to find it anyway.

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But not if you're in the debt market. In the debt market you see Metrocall radically differently. You think, Oh boy, there goes $600 million -- which is how much Metrocall has in outstanding bonds. This default is a jarring one to every bondholder and every equipment maker that lends to folks like Metrocall. Believe me, at one time, this Metrocall was an active business. I owned its debt at one time. I thought it seemed like a good way to pick up some yield without a lot of risk.

Wrong!

Stuff like the Metrocall default is something you'll have to get used to. The process will go like this: Metrocall will default. Those who lent to Metrocall now get hosed, whether it be a telco vendor or a mutual fund. That takes money out of the system. It's deflationary. And it curtails optimism.

It doesn't matter to Metrocall if the Fed eases or not. It's too late. Anyway, lower rates won't allow Metrocall to grow out of its jam.

Metrocall is why I would be careful with junk bond funds right here. They probably own some of this gunk and they now have to write it down. It's why I'm still negative on the telecom equipment makers. They are probably owed, too, and they have to write it down.

And it's why I like nontech more than tech. Scholastic (SCHL:Nasdaq - news - boards) doesn't have a lot of truck with Metrocall. Never had, never will.

Random musings: Man, am I jaundiced. I don't trust anybody any more. I'm thinking about WorldCom (WCOM:Nasdaq - news - boards) and Nokia (NOK:NYSE ADR - news - boards), both of which are up sharply on comments by their top dogs. WorldCom expressed confidence in making the numbers. So did Nokia. I don't believe either one of them, frankly. I can understand that WorldCom might be able to cut capex to the bone and I can believe that Nokia might be able to come up with some cost-cutting having to do with outsourcing. But give me a break. That buys you no more than a couple of points each. We want growth. I don't see it. Sorry to be so skeptical -- however, I have the bruises to merit it.


James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to jjcletters@thestreet.com.
Send letters to the editor to letters@realmoney.com.
Read our conflicts and disclosure policy.
Order reprints of RealMoney.com articles. Top

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3/15/01 9:51 AM ET
Keep an eye on the stocks owned by certain funds -- they may deserve to be on your 'restricted list.'

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Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note
10,425.63 1,114.07 2,237.49 36.86
Oil *
73.02
UP
96.74
UP
11.60
UP
25.80
UP
1.40
10 Yr
3.69%
SPDR Gold
107.02
+0.94%
+1.05%
+1.17%
+3.95%
Data delayed 20 minutes

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