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Commentary : The Meehan Notes
The market got some good news for a change Friday morning, but was it really that positive? The Dow Jones Industrial Average popped 136 points, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 40 and the S&P 500 rose about 15 on news that factory orders were up 0.1% and the Chicago Purchasing Managers' report improved to 43.5 from July's reading of 38. Sign of a recovery in the manufacturing sector? Could be, but it seems wise to wait for further signs, especially from consumers, before getting irrationally exuberant. (Speaking of which, Alan Greenspan's comments in Jackson Hole, Wyo., included nothing that would move the market in either direction.) In any case, the quick gains faded almost as fast, as the move looked like nothing more than short-covering. No surprise, and not seeing much in the way of "real" buying. And I've got a hunch that I might be as lonely as the Maytag repairman. I had thought that the University of Michigan's consumer confidence poll would have the greatest impact on trading, as I hadn't anticipated a significant upside move in the Chicago PM report. I'm a bit surprised at the overall consumer confidence reading of 91.5, less than expected and down from July's final reading of 92.4. Most disconcerting of all was the significant decline in the expectations component, which declined to 85.2 from 88.4 in July, even as the present situation reading rose to 101.2 from July's 98.6 level. Can one realistically expect a recovery in manufacturing if consumers rein in spending? Didn't think so, which perhaps explains one reason why Friday morning's surge lacked any staying power. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index was lower until after Friday morning's data, as Novellus (NVLS:Nasdaq - news - commentary) had warned after Thursday's close. The SOX then moved slightly into the green, but the equipment stocks were still lower. With the fundamentals and technicals still bleak, traders might use the bounce as an opportunity to initiate or add to short positions. Same with the retailers: Home Depot (HD:NYSE - news - commentary), Lowe's (LOW:NYSE - news - commentary), TJX (TJX:NYSE - news - commentary), Walgreen (WAG:NYSE - news - commentary) and Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE - news - commentary) look weakest in the short term. As we head into the noon hour, it looked as if many traders were heading out for the beach. It's going to be painfully slow Friday afternoon, and looking for bounces to sell appears to be the only worthwhile reason for traders to hang around. The major market measures were all in the green but retraced about half of their spurts. The Chicago Board Options Exchange put/call ratio was a surprisingly high 0.97 at 11:30 a.m. ET, a good sign for the bulls, and if the market does weaken Friday afternoon, we could see readings above 1. If that's the case, I think it would be wise for traders who stick around to cover some shorts. I expect to see a decent rally Tuesday, which would present a more attractive and liquid opportunity to sell 'em again. Bill Meehan is the chief market analyst for Cantor Fitzgerald, a Manhattan-based institutional trading and research firm, and writes daily for the Cantor Morning News. Before that, he was a market analyst for Prudential Securities. At time of publication, Meehan was long QQQ puts, Merrill Lynch Semiconductor Holdrs puts, Home Depot and Wal-Mart, although holdings can change at any time. He appreciates your feedback at bmeehan@realmoney.com. Morning News, Copyright, 2001 is a product of Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. ("Cantor Fitzgerald"). The material is based upon information that Cantor Fitzgerald considers reliable, but Cantor Fitzgerald does not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Cantor Fitzgerald and its affiliates, officers, directors, partners and employees may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, buy or sell and deal as principal in the securities, or derivatives thereof, of companies mentioned herein and may take positions inconsistent with the views expressed. None of the information contained herein constitutes or is intended to constitute a recommendation by Cantor Fitzgerald of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination by Cantor Fitzgerald that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. You should consult with and rely upon your own advisers whether and how to use such information in making any investment decision.
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Content Search:
Quote Search:
(Stocks, ETFs, Mutual Funds)
TheStreet Directory
| Dow Jones | S&P 500 | NASDAQ | 10-Year Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,344.84 | 1,095.63 | 2,144.60 | 32.01 |
Oil *
78.47
|
|
UP
34.92
|
UP
4.14
|
UP
6.16
|
DOWN
0.30
|
10 Yr
3.20%
SPDR Gold
115.65
|
|
+0.34%
|
+0.38%
|
+0.29%
|
-0.93%
|
Data delayed 20 minutes |