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Commentary: Bob Gabele *New* Alerts! Please click here...
Only one creature soared into March with the momentum of retailer American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS:Nasdaq - news - boards), and that was my beloved Maryland Terrapins. Unfortunately, that changed, at least for the moment, when an analyst downgrade sent American Eagle's stock reeling to the tune of nearly 20%.
Now, unlike the Duke basketball team, I've got no bones to pick with American Eagle Outfitters -- either the stock or the stores. It's just that the stock had barely taken a breather since I covered insider selling at the company back in January. And this, after I had raved about these insiders' impeccable timing!
Continued SellingIf all this sounds a day late and a couple of dollars short, I mention it for the benefit of those looking to take advantage of Monday's weakness. If you are among them, I hope you will at least consider that since our previous story, insiders continued to sell the stock, to within weeks of Monday's downgrade. In fact, from Jan. 5 through Feb. 6, 11 insiders sold more than 450,000 shares (adjusted to reflect a recent 3-for-2 split) as the stock soared from $30 to around $40. This is in addition to the 4.5 million shares sold by members of the Schottenstein family, American Eagle's founders. To be sure, shares of American Eagle have had a magnificent run since insider accumulation hailed a bottom last summer. Just as certainly, there are those who disagree with the J.P. Morgan analyst's pessimistic forecast. But like I said before, whether they're buying or selling, when American Eagle insiders head to market, I'm all ears.
In Sickness and in Health?On the subject of old favorites, it seems like only yesterday that insiders sold Oxford Health Plans (OXHP:Nasdaq - news - boards) ahead of its now-legendary collapse back in October 1997. Now, with things apparently on the mend, it's difficult to fault turnaround specialists TPG Partners II LP for surfacing in February to unload 5 million shares in a so-called spot offering. After all, the group, which placed four directors on the board as well as the company's CEO, was right there for Oxford in its darkest days back in 1998. The group's decision to unwind its position does, however, draw attention to the gradual resurgence of insider selling at Oxford. Last year alone, Oxford insiders sold more than 2 million shares, including nearly 500,000 since October. Among the sellers, Director and former Chairman Stephen Wiggins and Director Fred Nazem sold 1.2 million shares and 434,000 shares last year, respectively. Oxford's chief financial officer and general counsel were among the remaining sellers. No doubt, Oxford management has done a lot of things right over the past few years. Even so, the company's doggedly loyal following seems eerily reminiscent of the glory years of October 1997. Just last week, for example, when the company disclosed that it could lose roughly $240 million in Medicare contracts, analysts jumped to the company's defense, with at least one questioning whether the loss of contracts might not ultimately prove to be a good thing. Outside of TPG Partners, Oxford insiders have been quiet this year. Last week, in a discussion of insider buys, I stressed the importance of patience. The same holds when analyzing insider sells. The timing of the 5 million share sale by TPG Partners just one week ahead of the Medicare warnings may be a concern for some. I'm more interested in the true insider selling that built to a crescendo heading into year-end 2000. Taken together, they make Oxford Health once more worth watching. Bob Gabele has been tracking and analyzing insider trading since 1978, most recently for First Call/Thomson Financial. This column is not meant as investment advice; it is instead meant to provide insight into the methods of insider trading. At time of publication, Gabele held no position in any of the companies discussed in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Gabele appreciates your feedback and invites you to send any to Bob Gabele.
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