Action Alerts PLUS
RealMoney Silver
Stocks Under $10
Options Alerts
Top Stocks
View All


Now, enjoy the good life every day!

RSSRSS FEEDS
PODPODCASTS



RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
Print This Story

Don't Lean on Last Year's Market for Confidence
Page 2



And here we are again, with so many folks looking for a repeat of last year's action as their template for this year. The market is funny like that: It shows us a pattern over and over again until we learn the pattern, and then it changes the pattern.

After the July 2006 lows, it took nearly a year for everyone to realize that the market's corrections were short-lived and lasted only one or two days. Now it seems everyone believes that's the way this action will be.

I'd like to ask a different form of Kass' question: Why are the bulls so scared of a correction?

Last year's decline was vastly different from this summer's decline, starting with the time frame. Last year's began in early May and lasted until mid-July. My calendar says that was two months. This year we had exactly one month before we made a bottom from the highs. Last year it took nearly three months to gain 10% in the S&P 500 off the low. This time it took one month.

Now take a look at the cumulative advance/decline line from then and now. I've boxed off early September last year in red. The a/d line (the blue line) was making higher highs six weeks after the lows in early September. It took the S&P another month to make a higher high.


This time we have the cumulative a/d line well off the highs and the S&P pushing up toward them.

There's more. The Investor's Intelligence bulls were still hanging around 45% six weeks after the market's low. Now they are just over 55%. And heck, by the time the S&P made a higher high last year, the bulls were still only at 52%.

Clearly, sentiment has shifted a whole lot faster this time around than it did last year. Remember, we learn from our mistakes, and the mistake last year was to scoff at the rally.


Go to NEXT PAGE


 RELATED STORIES

Technical Analysis
Autodesk Moves to the Front of the Class
10/1/2007 9:26 AM EDT
The stock has been drifting quietly behind the software sector leaders, but its time may have come.

Technical Analysis
Friday's Session Will Set the Tone
10/1/2007 9:19 AM EDT
Employment data is released on Friday, and the reaction to it should tell investors what kind of month it will be.

Technical Analysis
No Time to Be Getting Giddy
9/28/2007 4:51 PM EDT
There are any number of reasons to be a little short-term bearish right now.



Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.



Partner Center


Advertisement



Write us!
Order reprints of TSC articles.

Investor Relations | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | Conflicts Policy | Corrections | Internet Index | Advertise | FAQ
Site Map | Who's Who | Reader Feedback | Employment | Contact Us
RSSSubscribe to our RSS Feed
© 1996- TheStreet.com, Inc. All rights reserved.
TheStreet.com's enterprise databases running Oracle are professionally monitored and managed by Pythian Remote DBA.