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After the July 2006 lows, it took nearly a year for everyone to realize that the market's corrections were short-lived and lasted only one or two days. Now it seems everyone believes that's the way this action will be. I'd like to ask a different form of Kass' question: Why are the bulls so scared of a correction? Last year's decline was vastly different from this summer's decline, starting with the time frame. Last year's began in early May and lasted until mid-July. My calendar says that was two months. This year we had exactly one month before we made a bottom from the highs. Last year it took nearly three months to gain 10% in the S&P 500 off the low. This time it took one month. Now take a look at the cumulative advance/decline line from then and now. I've boxed off early September last year in red. The a/d line (the blue line) was making higher highs six weeks after the lows in early September. It took the S&P another month to make a higher high.
![]() This time we have the cumulative a/d line well off the highs and the S&P pushing up toward them. There's more. The Investor's Intelligence bulls were still hanging around 45% six weeks after the market's low. Now they are just over 55%. And heck, by the time the S&P made a higher high last year, the bulls were still only at 52%. Clearly, sentiment has shifted a whole lot faster this time around than it did last year. Remember, we learn from our mistakes, and the mistake last year was to scoff at the rally.
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Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.
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