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RealMoney.com: The Turnaround Artist
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Buy Now in an Undervalued Dow
Page 2



Investors get tripped up when they focus solely on nominal stock prices. For example, some might say that Dow component Intel ( INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take) is materially higher at the current quote of $23.50 when compared with its multiyear low of $13 per share in 2002.

It's true that the nominal stock price is much higher. But the underlying asset, the ongoing business at Intel, is demonstrably more valuable today than when it traded at $13 per share in 2002. Since then, sales are up 75%, net assets are 42% higher, and earnings are up threefold. If Intel trades at or about $22 per share in 2006, it will be bumping up against its 10-year lows relative to the underlying business value.

Another Dow component, Wal-Mart (WMT - commentary - Cramer's Take) currently trades at eight-year lows relative to its business value. For more than 20 years, Wal-Mart has performed like clockwork, more than doubling earnings, net assets and sales every six years. To equate the nominal current quote of $45 per share with a $45-per-share quote of six years ago (the trading range was $41 to $69 six years ago) is nonsense. Wal-Mart's business value has more than doubled in value during that time frame. It was overvalued in 1999. Now it's undervalued.

My valuation calculations indicate a current value of $61 per share for Wal-Mart. I expect that its business value will grow to $69 per share in 2006.

The Dow first traded at the current level of about 10,200 some six years ago. Then it was distinctly overvalued. Now it's undervalued. Business values of nine of the 30 Dow components have doubled in value over the last six years. In addition to Intel and Wal-Mart, business values doubled at:

  • 3M (MMM - commentary - Cramer's Take)
  • AIG (AIG - commentary - Cramer's Take)
  • Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Cramer's Take)
  • Exxon Mobil (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take)
  • Home Depot (HD - commentary - Cramer's Take)
  • Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take)
  • United Technologies (UTX - commentary - Cramer's Take).

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    At time of publication, Alsin and/or ACM was long WMT and MSFT, although holdings can change at any time.

    Arne Alsin is the founder and principal of Alsin Capital Management, an Oregon-based investment advisor and portfolio manager of The Turnaround Fund, a no-load mutual fund. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Alsin appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

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