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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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New Highs, Commodities, and Dollar/Yen -- Oh, My

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor

5/16/2008 9:12 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Helene Meisler
 
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Well, so much for my correction theory. They chose instead to run 'em back to the top of the range on the S&P. So let's look at the statistics and see how they line up.

To begin with I will repeat that the intermediate-term indicators are all still headed up. They are not headed down. When and if they do turn down, I will report on it.

For now, the 30-day moving average of the equity put/call ratio is still declining as I showed in my column two days ago. The McClellan Summation Indices might have less of a cushion in what's needed to turn them downward, but for now they continue to rise.

But there's been another change that has taken place this week. The cumulative advance/decline line, or market breadth, has improved. It's finally made a higher high. So has cumulative volume on Nasdaq.

Click here for larger image.

Volume continues to be poor at best, but now the media are reporting on how poor it is, so who doesn't see that?

Click here for larger image.
However, if you want to point the finger at something, it's the number of stocks making new highs. We still have yet to see an increase there. They continue to lag, and yesterday was quite glaring.

On the NYSE, the new highs were 156 in April and 156 on Wednesday. Yesterday, they were 110.


Click here for larger image.
On Nasdaq, the new highs were 58 in early May and 57 Wednesday. We had 42 yesterday. And I would point out that Nasdaq has been the best performer, yet there are only 42 stocks that are making new 52-week highs. What happened to the other 16 that were part of the party two weeks ago?


However you will see that the Oscillators are still not anywhere near the highs they were at a few weeks ago. It might seem absurd to you, but that means there is less momentum on this leg up than the last one. I'm certain that those folks who see all these huge stock moves on the upside think I'm crazy, especially when they see all these charts heading upward. But I am reminded of a button I have that says, "If it looks great, it's too late!"

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At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.



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