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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Put/Call Ratio Troubles Me

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor

5/14/2008 7:24 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Helene Meisler
 
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Why does almost everyone hate the rally in oil?

I can understand it from a consumer standpoint in that the high price of crude oil has managed to force up the price of so many other goods and put a crimp in consumer spending. But as investors, this has been a massive bull market, yet I get more questions from folks who want to buy UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG - commentary - Cramer's Take) than I do from folks who want to buy Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG - commentary - Cramer's Take).

DUG makes new lows each day, and DIG is trading near its highs.

I thought the U.S. Oil Fund (USO - commentary - Cramer's Take) ETF had a target in the mid-$90s, and all it did was have a $5 correction from that point. Here it is now over $100. I am not bearish on oil. The worst I can say is it's stretched and in need of a correction.

Now, the burning desire of everyone out there is to catch the exact top in oil, and yet the financials are once again slip-sliding away, and no one seems to care or notice. No one talks about shorting the financials.

Nope, when it comes to the financials, it's all about catching the bottom! The Bank Index as it relates to the S&P is toying with a lower low. If it were making higher lows I'd be impressed, but it is not.

The good news from yesterday's market was that the number of stocks making new highs increased. They did not increase enough to surpass the previous readings, but they did increase. So did volume. And I'm not sure if that's bullish or bearish!

However what is bearish is the fact that the CBOE's put/call ratio fell under 80% for the first time since late December. I'm sure I will get notes from folks telling me that this is an expiration week and therefore I should ignore the low put/call ratio. And perhaps they are be correct. I hate rationalizing an indicator, but I also rationalized the low put/call readings we had going into the December expiration, and that turned out to be a mistake.

The main difference between then and now was that the 30-day moving average of the equity put/call ratio was already rising and not still falling as it is now (circled in red).

So I went and checked, and the equity put/call ratio started showing consistently low readings (i.e., below 80%) around mid-April. The 30-day moving average is currently "dropping" April 2, so this has between six and 10 more trading days before it can halt its slide. My calendar says that is just after Memorial Day. Therefore these now-consistent put/call ratios could begin to matter on a more intermediate-term basis soon. We'll monitor it closely going forward.

For now I remain in the correction camp. We've gone nowhere for two weeks, and that makes this just a correction for now. If the intermediate-term indicators roll over, I'll move from correction to something more serious on the downside, but for now it's still a correction.

Overbought/Oversold Oscillators

For more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's primer.








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At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.




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