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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Volume Is the Key

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor

5/8/2008 7:47 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Helene Meisler
 
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Beginning on April 25, I began discussing a correction coming around the turn of the month, and I have done so almost every single day since. I suppose it's true what they say about broken clocks -- even they are right twice a day!

Statically speaking, yesterday was fairly standard. Breadth was poor, but it's been poor on the upside, too, as I discussed earlier this week (please link). Volume picked up. That too has been rather standard for this market. And the bonds stayed in their range, the dollar/yen stayed in its range, and that in turn caused the S&P to stay in its range.

Keep in mind that this relationship, especially between dollar/yen and the S&P, has been quite accurate. Take a close look at the intraday trading that took place in the dollar/yen yesterday. It was up all morning and then as it started to fall away from resistance -- right around 11 a.m. -- the stock market started to go down. This chart has now tried three times in the last four days to get through that 105.50-106 area and hasn't. Put that level on your screen to watch.

If this turns down, so will the stock market.

Away from that, Doug Kass showed a chart of the NYSE and Nasdaq volume relationship yesterday, trying to make a negative case for the market. Back in October, I showed this relationship as well for the same purpose. I do a ratio of the two exchanges' volumes and I plot them on a 10-day moving average. Each time we get up over 150% we start looking for an intermediate-term high in the market.

However, I have also discovered that on its own, it does not work for timing. It requires confirmation from the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index. Keep in mind that I use the volume figures instead of the advance/decline figures for Nasdaq's Summation Index.

Back in March, I pointed out how this indicator was not making lower lows along with Nasdaq, and I viewed it as a positive. What I've got my eye on now is for it to roll over. A rollover in this indicator would indicate an intermediate-term move for the market.

As of this morning it has ceased to rise. Now, an up day today, even a minor one, would set it right back to rising. But a down day or two would likely send it rolling over. Right now it's neutral.

Therefore, a rolling-over of the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (using volume) would be one of those intermediate-term indicators that has the potential to change this current decline from a short-term correction to something more intermediate. I suspect it is only a matter of time before that occurs. In October, it took about two weeks for it to occur.

Now, before I end on a totally sour note, the put/call ratio did surge to a reading over 100% yesterday. Since April 15, we've only seen two other days with such high readings, so clearly yesterday spooked some folks.

I have been and will remain in the correction camp until the market gets oversold again. One up day didn't change my correction thesis, and one down day isn't going to change it either.

Overbought/Oversold Oscillators

For more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's primer.








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At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.




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