I discussed the dollar last week, and it had quite a move that very day, so I thought it would be a good time to revisit the dollar, bonds and gold with the Fed coming this week, because all three should be affected by the Fed decision.

Anecdotally speaking, I see we are once again hearing from the dollar bottom-callers. It is truly amazing to me how they don't chime in until well after the move. For the dollar/yen, we're getting awfully close to that resistance level I noted last week. I'd call it 105 to 105.50. It's got an outlier chance of getting to 106, but I think a move up to 106 would be short-lived at this point. There's too much resistance up here and way too much attention being paid.

As for the euro, I was not expecting such a sharp move on Thursday, but we got one. You might recall several weeks ago I noted how a sharp move down in the euro against the dollar had resulted in sharp rises in the S&P, and the same occurred late last week.

I've circled a previous low around 1.55 on the chart, and there is a small uptrend line that comes in there as well. I'd expect to see that level hold the first time down.

The media finally saw the head-and-shoulders top in gold. I have said for some time now (after that initial breakdown in gold) that I believed we'd see gold in a trading range between $850 and $950 for some time. I do not take issue with the H&S top because it is there. But it is also quite obvious.

I don't expect gold to break just yet. And if it does, the chances of a false breakdown are growing. It's already fallen nearly 100 bucks in the past week or so, which usually means that by the time it breaks, it tends to be exhaustive rather then fresh. A small oversold rally before the break tends to make for a fresher break.

Now the bonds. Many weeks ago, when I first showed the chart of the yield on the five-year note and said I thought rates were going up, there was very little in the way of chatter about higher interest rates. Now that's about all we hear. A few weeks ago, I showed the yield on the 30-year bond and explained how the lows in yields were recently accompanied by rallies in the market, and that point A and point B on the chart showed near declines in the market.

Those highs at points A and B are in the 4.62% to 4.68% area. As of Friday's close, the 30-year bond yielded 4.59%, so we're going to get into that zone soon. (This is in keeping with my thoughts expressed here Friday that we would be due for a correction in the stock market sometime in late April/early May.)

To put this all together, we have bonds getting close to the upper end of their range, we have the dollar vs. the yen coming into its resistance area, we have the dollar vs. the euro coming into its first support area, and we have folks finally noticing the head-and-shoulders top in gold. And we have the stock market heading toward an overbought reading. It seems to me that none of this is all that critical in terms of intermediate-term trends, but we're getting awfully close to the point where the short-term trends of the past several weeks are consensus -- and we know the market will do what it can to make the consensus wrong.

I figure we'll either get a breakout that turns into a fakeout (more bearish) or we'll just correct from the upper/lower end of the ranges in these various markets (more bullish). But we are getting close to a shift.

Overbought/Oversold Oscillators

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