Now, I know everyone will make a huge fuss over Intel and the semis, but I'd say it's all part of the base-building process in that group. Instead, I'd like to revisit another potential base we discussed not long ago: the yield on the five-year note.

When last we checked in, yields were up, but I was expecting they might go a bit higher and then pull back to lower rates.

It was my hope that such a pullback would give us a right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders bottom. They did not go even a bit higher; instead, they came right back down, and yesterday they went back up.

We are definitely not out of the woods yet, as we haven't even gotten through last week's high yield, but the pattern seems to be developing. However, check out the chart of the yield on the 30-year bond.

While this cannot be construed as a head-and-shoulders bottom due to the recent lower low, I would point out that yields are now the highest they have been in a month on the 30-year bond. Before we get to that note, I've drawn in the dates of the three lows on that chart.

Nov. 26 was right around the low for that (very late) Thanksgiving rally. Jan. 22 was right around our January low. And March 21 was quite close to our March 17 low.

Point A was late December just before the January swoon. Point B was mid-February just before the swoon that led to the Bear Stearns (BSC - commentary - Cramer's Take) crisis. It may take us awhile to get up toward that blue resistance line, but the fact that we made a minor higher high tells me we are at least going to give it a try.

Now the good news is that there is also the potential for a head-and-shoulders bottom in the stock market. Yes, we're still in that rectangle, but I suspect if we rally today it won't be long before all those casual chart observers start seeing the H&S bottom here. Or maybe they'll just call it a triple top again?

Of course, if they get the pattern correct this time (a head-and-shoulder bottom) then we'd get them all excited over the market again, and instead of finding bearish sentiment everywhere, we'd once again find bullish sentiment everywhere. And that would probably set us up for a move down yet again.

Overbought/Oversold Oscillators

For more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's primer.