Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 to 381,000 in the week ended June 14; forecasts were for a reading of 375,000. Jobless claims have been trending upward, albeit very slowly, but they remain low enough to suggest the contraction in the economy has thus far been shallow.
For example, by comparison, during the 1990-1991 recession, claims averaged 430,000 per week when the population was much lower. Adjusting for population growth, claims during the 1990-1991 recession averaged close to 500,000. During the 2001 recession, claims averaged 416,000, which equates to closer to 440,000 today. During both recessions, claims went above 500,000 for a single week.
Continuing claims fell to a four-year low, falling 76,000 in the week ended June 6 (these data are released with a one-week lag) to 3.060 million. The drop was the most since the week ended Feb. 1. There was no explanation provided by the Department of Labor, but a rational explanation could be that many recipients saw their benefits run out, as benefits last for only six months -- it was six months ago that the number of jobless claims recipients began to rise.
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Tony Crescenzi Blog Hike Odds Down Again 6/18/2008 12:06 PM EDT Despite the news earlier in the week, the rate-hike odds continue to go south.
Tony Crescenzi Blog Chain Store Sales Up 6/17/2008 3:34 PM EDT Watch for a corresponding uptick in the ISM index soon.
Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of the revised investment classic, The Money Market,
first published in 1978 by Marcia Stigum, and The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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