The University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index fell to a new 28-year low of 56.7 in early June vs. 59.5 in May. Most are already numb to these data. Moreover, how consumers feel and how they behave could differ for a few months, as we saw in May in the retail sales data, which were boosted by the distribution of tax-rebate checks.
Further reducing the importance of these data is the fact that confidence data tend to lag inflection points in the economy. As for inflation expectations, in this survey, consumers said that they expected prices to increase 5.1% over the next year, down from 5.2% in May, which was the most since November 1981.
P.S. Will you be there when Cramer makes his next move?
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Tony Crescenzi Blog Unfavorable Fed Auction 6/12/2008 3:08 PM EDT The bid/cover ratio goes positive, but this may be a result of financing issues.
Tony Crescenzi Blog Currency Intervention Makes Sense 6/12/2008 12:23 PM EDT The time for intervention is when the dollar has advanced enough to crimp speculators.
Tony Crescenzi Blog Inflation Variables Better 6/13/2008 10:14 AM EDT Commodity prices and their impact are the concern right now.
Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of the revised investment classic, The Money Market,
first published in 1978 by Marcia Stigum, and The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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