Ten Tech Predictions for 2008

Last year, I made a series of predictions regarding tech and other sectors, and given that we're almost at year-end, it's time to look back and see how right, or wrong, I was. Also, I'll list 10 predictions for 2008.

Stuff I Got Right

Transformers did end up as one of the five biggest films of the year and an upcoming G.I Joe film was announced. Gap (GPS - commentary - Cramer's Take) CEO Paul Pressler was replaced, though the company did post positive same-store sales in March and November, as opposed to my expectations for negative same-store sales every month of the year. In addition, as I predicted, Dell (DELL - commentary - Cramer's Take) was a market-share loser and Michael Dell took over CEO duties from Kevin Rollins.

Stuff I Got Wrong

Every prediction I made regarding the video-game industry was dead wrong, ranging from my expectations for $200 million in Halo 3 sales the first day to Microsoft's (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take) eliminating the cost of its Xbox Live service. Given that I follow the video-game industry very closely, this is kind of embarrassing.

I also had high expectations for offshore outsourcing this year, but the industry suffered from the weak U.S. dollar, which took a toll on profit margins.

Also, Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take) failed to announce a major restructuring, and mediocre hedge fund performance didn't seem to impact the brokers, though the housing implosion more than made up for it.

Finally, Wal-Mart (WMT - commentary - Cramer's Take) did continue to cut prices (duh), but did not announce a wide-scale store redesign, as I thought it would.

Stuff Where I Was Kinda Right, Kinda Wrong

I also said that "Microsoft's Vista operating system won't drive big PC volume growth, but will contribute to a strong uptick in demand for DRAM and graphics cards. One company likely to benefit is Qimonda (QI - commentary - Cramer's Take)."

Well, PC demand was stellar, though I attribute that mostly to the increasing popularity of notebooks rather than Vista, but the DRAM market was an absolute disaster due to oversupply issues. Also, Microsoft did release new Zune media players, though they didn't seem to do much in terms of pressuring Apple's (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take) line of iPods.

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In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, Michael Comeau doesn't own or short individual stocks. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. Comeau is a research analyst at TheStreet.com. In this role he performs stock analysis for TheStreet.com Breakout Stocks, and is also a regular contributor to RealMoney.com. Prior to his arrival at TSC in June 2004, Comeau worked as a Consultant to Toyota Motor North America, performing in-depth research on automotive industry issues, primarily in the areas of alternative engine technologies, competitive analysis and macroeconomics. His primary market interests include consumer technology, specialty retail, and small-caps. Comeau received a bachelor's degree in Finance from Brooklyn College, and has completed Level 1 of the CFA program.. He appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.