Florida's Good News Will Be Felt by All

Florida's been the epicenter of the housing disaster from the start, only eclipsed at times by the Inland Empire in Southern California. Florida, the most speculated market -- lots of California wasn't spec, but rather first-time homeowners with poor credit -- crashed a couple of years ago even though the mortgages kept being pumped out and the worsening credit was ignored.

So anything that's good Florida could signal a turn in the rest of the country. Yesterday we got news out of Standard Pacific (SPF - commentary - Cramer's Take), one of the worst-offending homebuilders by its aggressiveness and willingness to build to suit speculators, although no one would ever admit that.

The news was typically awful, housing orders down 12% for April and May, a 25% cancellation rate, down a tad from last year at this time. But the salient piece of data: Florida sales were up 42%.

Wow!

If you go to the Web site, you will find that the housing dispersal includes both coasts. That's an astounding turn and one that is worth heralding even though Texas, the Carolinas and Colorado were awful. Those markets were all about a year behind Florida, so if Florida can turn, over time they can too.

I keep thinking of when Bob Toll came on my show and said that Florida had gone from being the worst to the best and that he was no longer worried about it.

This evidence from SPF confirms things. With price cuts and low rates, houses move. And housing starts at a 17-year low will actually help the situation. There will eventually be some scarcity value here.

It is a good sign that things are getting better in one of the worst parts of the economy. No, it is not enough to start raising rates; that would be the height of lunacy. This market is the only one that has turned up, and many are still turning down.

But just like in the stock market, when the first to fall turns, you get a follow-through with the others not long behind it.

Random musings: Run, don't walk, to the things that Doug Kass is hearing. They will define today's show, and Dougie's got a hot hand with this bank call. You need to get the agenda for the day -- Doug is setting it.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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