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RealMoney.com: Energy
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For Solar Stocks, Cash Flow Is King

By Kevin Kelleher
TheStreet.com Contributor

9/23/2008 4:12 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Kevin Kelleher
 
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Stocks in the solar industry have been more volatile over the past week amid the turmoil on Wall Street. As the dust starts to settle, investors are trying to figure out where these stocks will go from here.

The answer may lie, in the short-term at least, in how much cash they have on hand or can generate from their current operations. Those that need to raise more money may have a hard time of it as the capital markets continue to right themselves.

Many stocks regained late last week most of the losses they suffered as the financial crisis deepened. But most were down again on Monday and Tuesday. Evergreen Solar (ESLR - commentary - Cramer's Take) fell 3.8% Tuesday, while Solarfun (SOLF - commentary - Cramer's Take) was down 9.4%. GT Solar (SOLR - commentary - Cramer's Take) and First Solar (FSLR - commentary - Cramer's Take) slid 4.8, and 4.3%, respectively, while Trina Solar (TSL - commentary - Cramer's Take) fell 6.9%.

In the not too distant future, solar panels will become cheap enough to compete with more traditional forms of energy. When it does, demand for solar installations will likely take off. But to meet that demand -- and, before then, to expand production enough to that economies of scale bring prices down -- manufacturers in the solar industry will need to expand production capacity. And that will require billions of dollars. The question is, where will they get it?

Maybe the stock market will pull out of its bearish mood long enough to allow the market for initial and secondary offerings to grow flush again. But for the past few months, the pipeline has been clenched tight -- only a few small deals have squeaked through.

Most of them have been hammered in the aftermarket. Among those in the solar industry, GT Solar, a maker of photovoltaic manufacturing systems, is down 45% from its offering price, and solar-panel installer Real Goods Solar (RSOL - commentary - Cramer's Take) is down 62%.

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