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Last, institutions now own 95% of Cognizant's float. Ideally, institutional ownership would be much lower, because then you would have all that latent buying pressure -- kind of like having the wind in your sail. Also, if the professionals start selling en masse, you will be trampled. (In contrast, insider ownership at SFBC International (SFFC - commentary - Cramer's Take), No. 3 on the Forbes list, is only 39% of the float. Also, insiders own 23% of the company.) To date, 2003 looks like another banner year for Cognizant. For the nine months ended Sept. 30, total revenue increased 60% to $260.1 million, while net income rose 56% to $39.6 million. And in the number that matters most, the stock is up 88%. Still, given Cognizant's growing investment rate in fixed capital, declining return on incremental investment, understated labor costs, low tax rate, aggressive insider selling, close ties with the outside auditor, no pent-up demand from institutions and rich valuation (the PEG ratio is 2.14), I'm content to do nothing for now. But I will revisit this company when its next 10-K is released in early 2004.
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Hewitt Heiserman has been a financial analyst for 15 years and has worked for Fidelity Investments, Simplex Time Recorder, American Holdco and Breakaway Solutions. He is now writing a book on the Earnings Power Box, an analytical model he created to gauge the quality of a firm's profits. (The Earnings Power Box is a trademark of Hewitt Heiserman.) At the time of publication, Heiserman didn't hold any securities mentioned in this column, although positions may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Heiserman appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to hewitt.heiserman@thestreet.com. TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Amazon.com under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Amazon purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.
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