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RealMoney.com: Earnings Power
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Cognizant's Shine Starts to Lose Its Luster

By Hewitt Heiserman
RealMoney.com Contributor

10/30/2003 11:30 AM EST
 
 Cognizant Tech (CTSH: Nasdaq) BEARISH
Price: $43.60  |  52-Week Range: $17.12-$44.99
  • Defensive profits have declined the last two years.
  • Earnings power seems to have hit a wall.
  • The investment rate in fixed capital has been going up.
Position: None

When Warren Buffett is asked what makes him so successful on Wall Street, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA - commentary - Cramer's Take) says that a principal tenet is selectivity. "An investor should act as though he had a lifetime decision card with just 20 punches on it," the Omaha billionaire has said. "With every investment decision his card is punched, and he has one fewer available for the rest of his life." Buffett says that in his career, for all the investment decisions that he has made, it's just a dozen or so companies that have made all the difference.



Buffett's advice is sensible, of course -- and doubly so for investors who buy growth stocks for long-term capital appreciation. Why? For one thing, companies with fast-rising earnings tend to be expensive as investors extrapolate past performance. Also, highly profitable companies attract competition, and that often turns lush margins into sawdust. Last, as I've written about extensively, just because a company is profitable in the traditional sense of the word doesn't mean it has authentic earnings power. For these reasons, today's investment peacock may be tomorrow's feather duster.

So what does the future hold for Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH - commentary - Cramer's Take), the top-ranked firm on Forbes' most recent 200 Best Small Companies list? On the basis of my Five-Minute Test, the information technology outsourcer gets high marks in eight of nine preliminary tests. Now it's time to gauge earnings quality.

What you can see in the following chart is a steady gain in accrual profits for the five years ending Dec. 31, 2002 -- an impressive performance to be sure. On a defensive basis, however, profits peaked in 2000 and have declined in each of the last two years. As for the enterprising profit-and-loss statement, the trend is up, although 2002's results weren't as tightly correlated to accrual profits as in previous years. (Ideally, defensive and enterprising profits will rise in lock step with the GAAP figure contained in the annual report and 10-K.)




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Hewitt Heiserman has been a financial analyst for 15 years and has worked for Fidelity Investments, Simplex Time Recorder, American Holdco and Breakaway Solutions. He is now writing a book on the Earnings Power Box, an analytical model he created to gauge the quality of a firm's profits. (The Earnings Power Box is a trademark of Hewitt Heiserman.) At the time of publication, Heiserman didn't hold any securities mentioned in this column, although positions may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Heiserman appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to hewitt.heiserman@thestreet.com.

TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Amazon.com under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Amazon purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.

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