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RealMoney.com: Earnings Power
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WorldCom's Peak Was Less Than Lofty
Page 2



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How to Read a Proxy

As for the enterprising ledger, WorldCom lost money every year when you convert intangibles from operating expenses to capital assets (which tends to boost earnings) and also take into account the implicit (but real) opportunity cost of stockholders' equity (which usually reduces the bottom line).

Because of the accrual P&L's four major limitations, I prefer to focus on the relationship between the defensive and enterprising income statements. Specifically, I want to see if these two alternate profit (loss) figures intersect in the upper-right box of a four-box matrix. Companies in what I call the Earnings Power Box possess authentic earnings power. If you're a long-term, cautiously greedy investor, these are the best companies to own.

As we see below in Exhibit 2, WorldCom never occupied the EPB. Instead, it was in the upper-left and lower-left boxes. For all of the favorable press this company garnered in the years leading up to its demise, the brutal fact is that its earnings quality, based on what we now know are fabricated numbers, was so-so at best.

Do yourself a favor: Don't buy companies with defensive and/or enterprising losses unless you know what you're doing.



It may interest you to know that I do post-mortems of every big company that costs investors money, and my research shows that the defensive and/or enterprising income statements are almost always better leading indicators of trouble than accrual P&L. Here's my list of companies that have cost investors billions in recent years, and which of my alternate earnings statements raised the red flag first.


Better Leading Indicator of Falling Stock Prices
"Defensive" "Enterprising" "Both"
Autozone Bethlehem Steel Allou Health & Beauty
Bombay Company Boston Chicken Casual Male
Centennial Technologies Crown Cork & Seal Enron Corporation
CKE Restaurants HealthSouth IBM (early '90s)
CML Group Ikon Office Solutions Office Max
Fine Host Polaroid Pep Boys
Gateway Rite-Aid Sunbeam
Gap, The Sherwin-Williams Warnaco
Lucent Technologies Stone & Webster Xerox
Measurement Specialties WorldCom
Tyco
United Airlines






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Hewitt Heiserman has been a financial analyst for 15 years and has worked for Fidelity Investments, Simplex Time Recorder, American Holdco and Breakaway Solutions. He is now writing a book on the Earnings Power Box, an analytical model he created to gauge the quality of a firm's profits. (The Earnings Power Box is a trademark of Hewitt Heiserman.) At the time of publication, Heiserman had no positions in any of the securities mentioned in this column, although positions may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Heiserman appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to hewitt.heiserman@thestreet.com.
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