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RealMoney.com: Earnings Power
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Consider This Before You Buy Dell

By Hewitt Heiserman
RealMoney.com Contributor

11/27/2002 11:56 AM EST
 



A few weeks back, Dell (DELL - commentary - Cramer's Take) gave its stockholders plenty of news to be thankful for.

The company's third-quarter results revealed that year-over-year product shipments jumped 28% (vs. a 2% gain for others in the industry), and that earnings rose 31% above year-ago levels to 21 cents a share. Meanwhile, revenue in the fiscal third quarter was up almost 10% sequentially.

Management also said its put option business was coming to an end, and that it repurchased 13 million shares (at a cost of $594 million) during the quarter.

Of course, no one manages receivables, inventory, payables and accrued expenses like Dell, and the computer hardware maker didn't disappoint. In the third quarter, incremental sales rose by $685 million while working capital fell by $366 million.

This agreeable circumstance was no fluke. For the 10 years ended Feb. 1, 2002, Dell's sales went up by a factor of 35, while its working capital declined, to a negative $3.56 billion from $128 million. When it comes to current assets and current liabilities, Dell is the hammer and everyone else is the nail.

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As for the fourth quarter now under way, Dell said it projects earnings of 23 cents a share, a 35% gain over last year.

All in all, an impressive performance -- especially considering that Dell was sailing into the headwinds of a rotten economy. So should you tell your broker to buy 100 shares?

As shown below, Dell isn't cheap. The multiples are based on the four quarters ended Nov. 1, 2002.

  • Enterprise value/revenue: 2.2 times
  • Enterprise value/EBITDA: 25 times
  • Enterprise value/defensive profits: 29 times
  • Enterprise value/book value: 16 times

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    Hewitt Heiserman has been a financial analyst for 15 years and has worked for Fidelity Investments, Simplex Time Recorder, American Holdco and Breakaway Solutions. He is now writing a book on the Earnings Power Box, an analytical model he created to gauge the quality of a firm's profits. (The Earnings Power Box is a trademark of Hewitt Heiserman.) At the time of publication, Heiserman had no positions in any of the securities mentioned in this column, although positions may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Heiserman appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to hewitt.heiserman@thestreet.com.
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