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RealMoney.com: Earnings Power
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Chico's FAS Is Pricey but Has Room to Grow
Page 2



Chico's numbers look impressive when we compare them with those of the Gap (GPS - commentary - Cramer's Take), whose stock went up eight times during the four years ended January 1999.


Gap (GPS)
Fiscal year ending February 1996 February 1997 January 1998 January 1999
Sales (millions) $4,395 5,284 6,508 9,054
Sales growth (per share) 24% 26 27 40
Defensive profits growth -45% 233 -4 62
Enterprising profits growth 44% 36 35 42
ROEC 19% 21 23 27
Return on greenest dollar 13% 22 31 33
Sources: Company reports, Earnings Power AnalystTM

Chico's also stands up well against Paychex (PAYX - commentary - Cramer's Take), whose stock went up five times during the four years ended May 31, 1998.


Paychex (PAYX)
Fiscal year ending May 31 1995 1996 1997 1998
Sales (millions) $267 325 400 495
Sales growth (per share) 19% 19 17 20
Defensive profits growth 66% 8 111 13
Enterprising profits growth 44% 36 35 42
ROEC 42% 49 60 76
Return on greenest dollar 87% 86 215 160
Source: company reports, Earnings Power AnalystTM

So why don't I back up the truck right now? Two reasons. First, Chico's insiders are selling, and second, the stock's valuation. Here are the ratios based on a $20 stock price.

  • Enterprise value/revenue: 3.7 times

  • Enterprise value/EBITDA: 15.6 times

  • Enterprise value/defensive profits: 92.7 times

  • Enterprise value/tangibles book: 8.7 times

    Chico's has room to grow profitably. I don't own it now, but I'm going to buy a few shares to remind myself to follow its progress. I'll buy more if the price drops to the mid- and low-teens.


    Think you know the next great growth stock? If so, tell me the company and why. If you make a persuasive case I'll run the numbers through my propriety model to see if it might be worth it for the long-term cautiously greedy investor. Over the next few months I'll share some of my findings with RealMoney readers. I'm especially interested in companies with sales between $100 million and $1 billion.


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    Hewitt Heiserman has been a financial analyst for 15 years and has worked for Fidelity Investments, Simplex Time Recorder, American Holdco and Breakaway Solutions. He is now writing a book on the Earnings Power Box, an analytical model he created to gauge the quality of a firm's profits. (The Earnings Power Box is a trademark of Hewitt Heiserman.) At the time of publication, Heiserman had no positions in any of the securities mentioned in this column, although positions may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Heiserman appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to hewitt.heiserman@thestreet.com.
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